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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (92375)	7/16/2001 11:25:45 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

$10-15/bbl?! That's the lowest guess here, yet. Man!! BEARS gettin' frisky methinks. Anybody for $5, yet? Hey, maybe somebody can dig up some old copies of The Economist from early 1999<G> What's your current portfolio look like Maurice? You're not "max margin" SHORT are ya ??? Isopatch

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (92375)	7/16/2001 11:30:58 PM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Maurice: There is a big problem with $10-15 bbl oil. In 1998 with prices at those levels, Saudi Arabia cut their budget twice very severely and still had to borrow $17 billion to balance their reduced budget. Had they not done so, there probably would have been a quick and perhaps violent change in the powers on the throne. I severely doubt they want to revisit those economics again. Look back at what happened in Indonesia, Venezuela, Ecudor, Columbia, Nigeria and see what a mess those price levels resulted in in all those countries. Most of OPEC had or came close to riots and a turnover in government. Then look at the trashing our oil and gas industry took at those levels. People left the industry in droves, drilling almost ceased. Not quite the response GW or any American needs to see again. As some have said, the cure for low oil and gas prices is low oil and gas prices. So where will oil prices go? ... I do not know ... but too low and the OPEC countries are in trouble. It may only cost $5 bbl to get the oil out of some locations, but it takes another $10 + to keep riots from happening.