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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (39103)	7/16/2001 11:45:27 PM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

donald sew Monday, Jul 16, 2001 9:17 PM JULY 16 INDEX UPDATE --------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - overbought region SPX - upper midrange OEX - upper midrange NAZ - upper midrange NDX - midrange VIX - lower midrange(inverse to market) 5 DAY TRIN - 5.38 In the previous index update, I mention that the lack of follow-thru on FRI could be just part of a 3-DAY PATTERN(UP-FLAT-UP) but that if there was no significant follow-thru today, that would be a sign of weakness. Needless to say, there was definitely no follow-thru today. This is expiration week, so we could still see some up oscillations, since expiration week is statistically either flat/up. As long as the intraday highs on last THUR are not broken to the upside, this short-term downswing will be intact. Again, the market may or may not go straight down, regardless I feel that a short-term downswing has started. Now the question is how low can it go. As mentioned often, Im not one to set price targets but rather express it in terms of time. The fastest I could get a CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL is 3 days, and that would mean 3-straight strong selling days, and Im not talking about negative 25 on the NDX. Of course if we get UP-OSCILLATIONs that would delay a CLASS 1 BUY. Frankly, I hoping for a one day rally back above 1700 on the NDX so I can firmly short it. I do not know when it will happen, so please do not take it out of context and assume that it will happem immediately. As mentioned in the past, I had done an analysis going back 30 years on the DOW/NYSE, and came to the conclusion that with declines of greater than 7%, have a high probability of a retest. The retest could occur within days, but if I recall correctly the average was within 3 weeks, but it could also take months. I would like to state my long-term position. 1) I dont know where/when the exact bottom will occur, but I feel that it will be lower than the APRIL LOWs. Its more of a guess, but my first point for a bottom is around 1100 on the NDX. 2) It will take years, say 5-15 years before the NDX/NAZ sets NEW HIGHs above 4816/5132. 3) Although I feel it will take many years before we see NEW HIGHs, I feel that once the bottom is set, I feel that within 1-2 years, the NAZ will do a FIB 38%-50% REBOUND. Lets say hypothetically the NDX/NAZ bottoms at 1100/1400, then I feel that the NDX/NAZ will rebound to the 2500-3400(NDX)/2800-3700(NAZ) regions. Many will argue with me on the NEW HIGHs taking 5-15 years, but the important issue is that alot of money can still be made without the NAZ/NDX setting NEW HIGHS. If, hypothetically the NDX botoms in the 1100 region a 38%-62% FIB rebound would mean a 127%-209% gain - thats alot of money, that could be made relatively short period of time. Of course for those who got in and held since 5000, thats a different issue - since Im talking about new trades, And another of course, those who got in and held since 5000 probably wont like my comments that it could take 5-15 years. So for those who do want to argue with me that it wont take 5-15 years - Let me say now that I really dont care since my very long-term position has absolutely no bearing on how I trade. I'll rather focus on the opportunity of making 100%-200% on a relatively quick rebound once the bottom is set, and since I will be playing options/leaps that could be several hundred percentage. I will also not ignore the possibility that the NDX could go lower than 1100, or that it wont get that low to 1100. Im just stating that once a main bottom is set, the rebound should be very strong and relatively quick. Now the question how do we spot the main bottom. I feel that the clues will be bullish divergences within the market internals with the NDX taking the lead, not the small/mid-caps. Concerning the NDX(large HiTECHs) taking the lead, I will be overlapping the the NAZ/NDX charts. When the divergence between the NAZ/NDX starts to narrow, that may be the hint that the bottom may be set. Of course there will be alot more technical issues that I will be watching, just mentioning the more important ones.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (39103)	7/17/2001 10:55:05 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

unfortunate lesson: fight inflation ghost..... and you get the opposite -- deflation and strong risk of recession fight a recession risk with inflation policy..... and you get strong recession and risk of depression in pockets of the world economy watch in horror this summer and autumn as numerous small and medium economies in Asia and South America fall and melt down like chocolate bars on asphalt pavement !!! in 1997 and 1998 we saw a full one year for the Asian Meltdown to reverberate around the entire globe this time from spring/summer/autumn 2000, it will take at least a full year for the inner tremors to work out in the form of a series of shockwaves Argentina just took on a shockwave, one not finished yet the rest of the world is undergoing huge stress now the next shock will come where currency pressures are greatest and that means wherever local currency is tied to the USdollar horribly destructive, inept, and failed Federal Reserve policy in 1999 and 2000 has resulted in a stalled if not depressed US economy, and a worldwide economic recession that will be EXTREMELY difficult to emerge from lots of comments from (to date incorrect and inept) brokerage strategic analysts about how the bottom has been seen IT HAS NOT BEEN SEEN, NOT YET bad earnings news is not an accurate foundation for building a premise of "worst news is seen" nor is adding 6-8 months to the start of a Fed easing cycle a foolproof device of forecasting economic turnaround listen to CEO's, not brokerage analysts listen to pink slip layoff notices, not CNBC cheerleader morons wearing makeup we are gonna see negative GDP in Q3, MARK MY WORDS IT WILL SPOOK THE MARKETS, AND LEAD MANY TO THE SIDELINES so many investors might soon move into cash... and wait AS WELL AS BRING QUESTION TO THE FED'S LEADERSHIP IMPEACH GREENSPAN / jim