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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (80340)	7/17/2001 2:42:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99985

Max Pain Max pain on MSFT is "oficially" 65. That will never hit. The mish eyeball method says MSFT will close at precicely $70.00 Huge resistance based on MSFT 70 calls. Actually there is a relitively small number of calls at 65 and when they forced the price to 65 a few days ago I bet those were all covered easily by going long 2M shares or so. Lot's of $ but I am pretty sure they got the bucks or hedged somehow. Other possibility is the suck all the rest of the time premium out and perhaps it closes as low as 68 or so which is what I hope as that will set the stage for a nice fall next week (If they are delta hedged short under 70 they will drive it further lower early next week before covering (at 64-65?). MSFT close much below 70 is very bearish IMHO. Huge resistance at 70. Best bet for longs is close at or slightly above 70. Do not see much chance of a hyge rally in MSFT at this point. Max pain on QCOM is 60 and if one believes that one could make a lot of $ on the Jul 65 puts. I believe it but am not playing for it (yet). Would like to see it rise a couple points after I close my shorts tomorrow. Then risk reward will be right. Huge numbers of options on INTC at 30. Straddles anyone? However with twice as many calls. (too much bullishness I think). This supports my idea that INTC stays flat (volatility premium will drop like a rock), then whatever move INTC is going to make is delayed for a day or two. Huge resistance at 30 based on Pain. Guess - late rally to precicely 30 where it stalls. QQQ pain is hard to read. Officially 43 but hardly any difference between 42, 43, 44. All this suggests to me is sideways into Friday with a slight negative bias. If they drop QCOM and MSFT but rally other stuff next week should really be nasty as it all goes down together in the big stairstep. Really good news or bad news will overcome this so we shall see. M