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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (4297)	7/17/2001 12:48:13 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Terry, Be careful about getting emotional with your trading. Sound advice. Thanks. . I'm siding with JP. I think a good buying opportunity in the oils is in the cards. Ah, yes, TA gastromancy. Got to admit I'm not much of a chartist. I'd love to believe that it has merit, but I seem perpetually stuck with trying to secure actual hard data and facts upon which to base my investment decisions. I like the Buffett view that over time, the stock market is a weighting machine. Taking a temporary roll of the dice on something like a TRU for the hope of a dead cat bounce just doesn't have a lot of appeal here. :) Over the next couple of years, the patch will be going into its typical phase of shrinkage, because there's a temporary glut of product. Or at least so it would appear from the macroeconomic data on worldwide business activity, and current levels of E&P activity. OTOH, picking up TRU in September might be something I'd consider, just based on the weather... Best, Ray :)

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (4297)	7/17/2001 6:11:26 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I'll take a moment to comment on chart 7. In effect, during the period prior to 2000, gains in networth were realized. It is true that this trend reversed itself, and networth has declined since. But you have to look at the cumulative effect- ie add up the area underneath the line when positive and then subtract the area above the line while negative. In effect- what you'll find is that while some dis-saving has taken place (for the most part amongst the highest quintile of networth/income population) recently, much additional dis-savings may occur before the wall is hit. He does go on later to point out that such a wall might occur sooner than later should the trend continue, as assets are liquefied to meet current liquidity needs- a valid concern. I've spent quite some time studying the numbers his charts are based on, and concluded that it is possible for the wall to be hit, but currently assign a low probability to that outcome. BWDIK?