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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: COMMON_SENSE who wrote (139370)	7/17/2001 12:36:18 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: Where would any wise man want to invest? Until quite recently, Intel's quarterly MPU revenues were running at nearly $6 Billion (30 million parts * $200 ASPs) and their total corporate costs were less than that - everything else was gravy. As this price war intensifies, and AMD enters Intel's Mobile and SMP markets as well as their desktop market with average ASPs of $75, Intel's ASPs could easily drop to $125. That would drop Intel's MPU revenues by $75 * 30 million parts or $2.25 Billion per quarter. Intel's costs have been rising as it aggressively expands its FABs and non-IAC businesses, and Flash and other non-IAC business fare poorly. Their quarterly losses could approach $3 Billion in a worst case scenario. Intel's current assets - Intel's current liabilities equals a little over $10 Billion. I wouldn't expect the street to put much of a price on a company that looks to be losing $Billions per quarter for several quarters. Right now that $10 Billion in net short term assets is being valued by the street at $190 Billion. If Intel looks to be losing money for the indefinite future, that $190 Billion market valuation would have room to go lower. If the SOI process that IBM and Motorola have been raving about, and that AMD has licensed and is implementing, works out.... But that's all for this present quarter, and future quarters, when AMD's notebooks are on the shelves of retailers and AMD's SMP systems are starting to appear. The quarter about to be reported on is one that ended a couple of weeks ago, and I expect that the numbers from that one will be pretty good. I also expect Intel to paint what it will call a cautious scenario that will include very optimistic numbers. The stock will probably rise, near term.

To: COMMON_SENSE who wrote (139370)	7/17/2001 1:18:03 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 186894

COMMON_SENSE,<<<How long could AMD stand toe to toe with Intel on this playing field. Intel, with $13 billion in the bank, could play this game infinitely. AMD would be backed against the wall.>>> As they said during past elections, "It is the economy, stupid" (I'm refering to analysts). Intel's biggest problem right now is the economy. Joe Osha would like everyone to believe that AMD is wrecking havoc with taking market share, lowering ASP, pressuring margins. True, Intel has competition, but who doesn't? MSFT? GE? Omaha Furniture Mart? Boeing? Coke? Exxon? Citi Group? Fortunately for Intel, the competition, is rather benign. The competition (AMD) gains market share every so often, as it has to to stay in business. If they didn't gain market share every so often, they would go out of business. AMD gains market share every so often whenever Intel screws up in manufacturing or in product transitioning. There is a long history between Intel and AMD. There is an ebb and flow. Nothing in nature occurs in a straight line. For there to be an AMD breakout, things have to change drastically at AMD. But, IMO any drastic change at AMD would be fatal. AMD's greatest weakness is Jerry Sanders and at the same time AMD's greatest asset is Jerry Sanders. He is the one that has kept AMD alive the last 30 years. AMD could not have existed without Jerry Sanders and I don't think it can continue to exist without Jerry Sanders. Jerry Sanders is nearing retirement age. At best, he can re price his options just one more time. Mary