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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (139475)	7/17/2001 6:28:06 PM
From: maui_dude	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 186894

Notes from the Intel CC (pardon typos and poor grammer. I do a good job there even when I dont type while listening!): Andy B : -------- -IAG revenue flat with Q1. -1.5c gains from tax rate reduction. -stock repurchase : 34 million shares worth $1B. -GM for Q3 : 47%, lower mainly bacause of lower ASP. -No investment income (in fact 100m loss) in Q3. -More strength in H2 for IAG, weekness in other businesses. -P4 ramp contribute to lower GM for H2. -Two-thirds of 7.5B capex is already spent. Paul O now : ------------ -Held market share in Q3. -Poised for Market share growth in H2 (!!!) -P4 share in china highest. Sells below $1000. -Japan troublesome. Mostly notebook market there. -America and Europe as expected. -June CPU shipment particularily strong. -80% cpu market share! (did I hear that right, can someone verify ?) -Server/WS market weak in Q2. -25 customer with 35 new products on Itanium by EOY. -1.8 GHz P4 extremely healthy (what does that mean ?) -845 chipset ready for back-to-school (great news!!!) -Major acceleration of desktop roadmap. -P4 will replace all P3 over $800 by end of year -Using .13 in value segment in H2 for celeron (wow!!!). -Expect market share gains in H2 (I believe it!) Q/A : ----- Edelstone : P4 ramp. Units doubled in Q2. what is crossover for P3 to P4. Paul : expect more than crossover! Osha : P4 .13 crossover. Paul : start in late H2. Real volume on .13 in 2002 on P4. Q : PC market in general. Paul : IT market slow. Medium sized business relatively healthy. Consumer market spotty (china/india/Latin AMerica very strong and rest weak to flat). Optimistic because of seasonal pattern and win XP. SSB : Jonathan : you must except higher GM in Q4. so Q3 price cuts will be not as bad and Q4 prices to firm up in Q4. right ? Andy : ASP for Q3 down. Some cost benefit in Q4. Goldman Sachs : H2 to strengthen. Where ? Paul : For CPU, we'll see strength. Other businesses not much. Andy : wide range because, september is normally a strong month. Danny Boy : Tax rate (he is trying to dig into Q2 results!). Profitibility due to tax rate ? Andy : saying he can figure that out by entering numbers in the spreadsheet (or something like that). Drew Peck (my hero!) : margins and pricing. Paul : want to drive P4 ramp very aggressive. Need to bring system price point same as p3. Q : CPU overshipment in Q3. Andy : we dont anticipate overshipment in Q3, unless customer wants to build inventory. DDR based P4 in Q1 2002. Q : Capex for H2 and 300mm. Andy : 7.5B cap ex. 5B already spent. 300mm program, 1 fab in production in H1 next year (sounds like a little slip to me) Q : if we assume CPU growth in 2002, would GM expand ? Andy : with .13 and 300mm on-line we'll reduce costs. Q : Spending in H2 flat with H1 ? Andy : (lot of disturbance). Advertisement higher. Q : ASP stabilise in Q4 ? what would drive that ? Paul : Strategically : take advantage of slow business, P4 health, chipset business, .13. Q : Eric Ross : DDR chipset question. [BTW, lots of great quarter comments from Analysts ] A : [Via] doesn't have license. Paul says he's heard rumors about that! Q : Inventory reserves. A : Not sure what Andy said. (I need we need the speech processing software from XP) Q : 150 million units for PC reasonable for this year ? Paul : Planning for numbers not far from this range. Q : P4 fastest ramping in history ? and do you have P4 inventory ? Paul : yes and yes. Q : still doing P3 wafer starts ? Paul : Yes. We have gentle transition for corporations on both technologies on P3. Q : when first 300mm product ? cost of old P3 inventory ? A : early 2002. Ours (not too worried), channels (managable) and OEMS (and informed them to work through it). Q : ABM AMRO (the dude, who saidintel will go to teens today, I think) A : Andy will answer his question in January (-: Q : Capex question. A : not all is spent on .13 and 200mm. But also on facilities. Some of 5B already spent on 300mm. .13 is the bigger driver. Several factories coming in H2 on .13. Q : Tanaka Capital. A : Outlook for Asia : sales in Taiwan picked up (mainly due to chipsets). Its a good leading indicator for CPU sales. For local consumptions, china/India looks very good and they are buying a richer mix. With laptop market share, the market share is very high. So, that market is unassailable. .13 will further help. Q : Market share. AMD said 22%. Intel said > 80%. what gives. A (easy : total is 102%!). well, we told you as we see it (or something like that). whew! My overall impression : I think AMD is in for a lot harder time than Intel. Celeron ramp on .13 will put AMD under a lot of pressure. Maui.

To: Road Walker who wrote (139475)	7/17/2001 7:34:22 PM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi John, RE: "These are real operating divisions that Intel bought with shareholder money. They are now losing over a dollar for every dollar of revenue." Some were making very good profit before they were acquired, and from the outside looking in, it appears like Intel opted to acquire technology and not worry about the short-term revenue - which is absolutely fine as long as this is a conscious decision, not an accidental occurrence due to a confused sales channel. RE: "Barrett's new business adventures are eating away virtually every profit dollar." I don't think you would want to advocate what management at General Motors or Chrysler did back in the early '80's. The auto industry didn't get what Barrett gets. The riskiest thing a company like Intel could do is to hide in its existing businesses and not venture into something new. It's got to take the risk to find new opportunities for the future. Avoiding risk is the biggest risk to any large company. Stagnation kills. While conscious risk can be scary, it is certainly the better option. The issue (for me) isn't how they entered into new businesses or capex, but rather the lack of disclosure around these. I think they have about 6 months to report on "Other", before my patience on the lack of disclosure gets thin, certainly no more than 9 months. RE: "very, very unlikely long term. I'll post more after I get a chance to look at the numbers." How so? I completely agree with Duke's comments about the large market opportunity here. The only thing I have issue with is the lack of disclosure around "Other." RE: "Thanks for the good news. " It's rumor, not news. It may be good, or it may be bad for Intel. It's bad if they decide to keep the division, if good talent leaves due to headquarter management not clearing up the rumor. If they decide to get rid of the division, a rumor like this means there could be less packages to give to employees, which is good for shareholders. Regards, Amy J