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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39159)	7/17/2001 8:55:21 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Stocks Rise on Optimism By Elizabeth Lazarowitz Tuesday July 17, 6:20 pm Eastern Time <<NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks climbed on Tuesday as investors looked beyond the wave of dreary quarterly earnings reports, and focused on upbeat forecasts instead. The mood on Wall Street turned optimistic as some companies' deteriorating results still managed to meet or beat analysts' estimates, including Dow component Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT - news). ``No one is saying this is the worst it's going to be,'' said Charles Payne, analyst at Wall Street Strategies. ``The key is, though, that more and more companies are actually telling us it will get better. A couple of months ago, they couldn't even do that, so that is being viewed as a positive.'' After the closing bell, marquee technology names like Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news), Veritas Software Corp. (NasdaqNM:VRTS - news) and Apple Computer Inc. (NasdaqNM:AAPL - news) issued forecasts that ranged from tepid to downright gloomy -- casting a cloud over Wall Street. Tech stocks slipped in after-hours trading. During the regular trading session, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) jumped 134.27 points, or 1.28 percent, to 10,606.39, to close at its highest level in nearly a month. About half of the Dow's 30 components are set to report earnings this week. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) climbed 11.99 points, or 1 percent, to 1,214.44. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) rose 38.20 points, or 1.88 percent, to 2,067.32, snapping back after Monday's hefty 2.67 percent slide. Many investors have been hoping the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate cuts will help pull the U.S. economy out of its slump. ``There is just that continued battle between overall positive monetary and fiscal policy and individual companies' earnings disappointments,'' said Rick Meckler, senior managing director at Liberty View, which oversees $1 billion. ``The underlying government policy is positive, and (investors are) assuming, given enough time, it will work,'' Meckler added. Investors will be tuned in for Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's key address to Congress on Wednesday. The central banker is expected to express optimism that the economy is stabilizing, although promises of further interest- rate cuts are likely to be absent, analysts said. Helping the Dow was a big gain in component Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction equipment, which said earnings slid 14 percent, but still beat estimates. Caterpillar rose $3.18 to $53.55. Among those spreading optimism was Maytag Corp. (NYSE:MYG - news), the No. 3 U.S. home appliance maker. It posted a 66 percent drop in earnings before the effect of an accounting change as sales of vacuum cleaners and floor care products slumped, but also said third-quarter earnings would show some improvement. Maytag shares climbed 69 cents to $31.90. Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE:WHR - news), the No. 1 U.S. maker of home appliances, also rose, shrugging off a 22 percent drop in earnings caused by soft spending on major appliances around the globe. The company said it expected strong improvement in the third and fourth quarters. Whirlpool rose $3.10 to $71.19. Intel, the world's largest semiconductor maker, beat quarterly earnings estimates, but its wide sales forecast disappointed some investors. Its shares fell to $29.32 in after-hours trading from Tuesday's close of $29.90. Data management software maker Veritas Software Corp. (NasdaqNM:VRTS - news) plunged in extended-hours trading after it cut its annual growth target amid a prolonged slump in corporate technology spending. Personal computer maker Apple slid after it hinted revenue for the second half of its fiscal year might fall short of estimates. The world's largest forest products company, International Paper (NYSE:IP - news), also beat estimates despite an 80 percent drop in quarterly earnings. The stock climbed 77 cents to $39. Photography giant Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE:EK - news), which is one of the 30 corporate icons that make up the Dow average, met expectations by reporting a 36.6 percent drop in profits, reflecting weaker sales of cameras and film. It even warned the sluggish economy could continue to affect operations in the third quarter, but investors shrugged off the news and its shares rose $1.33 to $46.03. Even chip maker Novellus Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:NVLS - news), which posted a 24 percent drop in income, managed to shake off its grim results. The company's chief executive said there is ''significant uncertainty'' in the semiconductor industry amid weak demand for computers and telecommunications gear. Its shares climbed $2.48 to $48.85. ``A lot of the damage is already reflected in stock prices,'' said Alfred Kugel, senior investment strategist at Stein Roe & Farnham, which is part of the $70 billion Liberty Funds Group. General Motors (NYSE:GM - news), a Dow component, posted a 74 percent drop in earnings to $477 million as lower U.S. vehicle sales and losses from overseas operations took their toll on the world's largest automaker. GM fell $1.05 to end at $65.99. Pharmaceuticals giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - news), another Dow stock, climbed $1.18 to $54.91 after taking a beating in early trading. The company's profits rose, but it missed Street forecasts. Despite investors' apparent optimism over the earnings so far, some analysts say there may not be enough evidence of a pickup yet to get too optimistic about a rebound in stocks. ``We always beat the estimates. The critical question is: Do we beat them by more or less than me normally do? We have no reason to expect in this environment we would beat them by more than normal,'' said Chuck Hill, research director at Thomson Financial/First Call. Although the earnings that have come in so far have beaten estimates by an average of 2.3 percent, that is still well below the average 3.0 percent by which S&P 500 companies have exceeded forecasts over the past seven years, Hill said. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average drop in profits of 18 percent for the second quarter, with about 20 percent of them having now reported their results, according to Thomson Financial/First Call.>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39159)	7/17/2001 9:02:17 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

ssanimation.com Pymatuning trip Sat? Ö¿Ö

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39159)	7/17/2001 9:03:09 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Is the Nasdaq coiling for a spring UPward... Message 16088435 Best Regards, Scott

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39159)	7/18/2001 1:36:03 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Wall Street Awaits Greenspan Testimony Wednesday July 18, 12:39 am Eastern Time By Andrew Priest <<NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday may offer more of a lift to stocks than bonds, with Wall Street expecting him to reassure lawmakers the U.S. economy will soon improve while keeping the door open to more rate cuts. In his semiannual testimony on monetary policy, the Fed chairman is expected to say retail spending, manufacturing, housing and durable goods reports all show the stalled economy is poised to rebound later this year, economists said. But the wily Fed chief will also likely warn that risks to growth remain stacked to the downside, with corporate profits a particular worry as Asian economies slip into recession and European growth stumbles. ``It's one of those situations where he has a fine line to walk. He wants to shore up market confidence, saying he will be there if they need him, but not for them to expect too much,'' said Michael Cloherty, Treasury strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. Greenspan's speech comes at a tricky time with the sharp slowdown that took hold late last year showing some indications of bottoming but few signs of rapid improvement despite the Fed's aggressive interest-rate cutting campaign this year. The corporate profit outlook is particularly bleak, with companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 index, a broad gauge of the stock market, expected to report an 18 percent decline in earnings from last year -- the worst since the 1991 recession, according to market research firm Thomson Financial/First Call. General Motors Corp. on Tuesday, for instance, said that second-quarter net earnings dropped 74 percent as weaker U.S. vehicle sales and losses from overseas operations took their toll on the world's largest automaker. THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE FED If Greenspan stresses the positive signs over the negative, he may be trying to elicit more help from financial markets than they have given him so far this year, economists said. The Fed's efforts have been stymied by the limp reaction of long-dated Treasuries and stocks to its 2.75 percentage points of rate cuts. In past easing cycles, stocks have risen strongly, boosting confidence and wealth, but an avalanche of profit warnings this year has hurt stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average is down 2.6 percent this year to 10,499, despite the steep interest rate cuts, and the Nasdaq is off 17.9 percent at 2,026.87. Further hints of rate cuts usually buoy stocks, but when Greenspan sent that message when he addressed Congress last February, stock markets put in a mixed performance. ``I think Greenspan will in some way try to say something positive to keep at least stock markets from falling further,'' said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey Lanston and Co. ``Much as he has this love-hate relationship with stocks, he can't get a sustained recovery without a higher stock market.'' Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries have risen since the Fed began cutting rates in January, pushing mortgage rates and other personal loans linked to these rates higher. Greenspan is also expected to provide some support to longer-dated Treasuries by stressing that the risks posed by inflationary pressures are abating as energy prices fall. Last year, with growth in the second quarter topping an annualized rate of more than 5 percent, Greenspan said high energy prices were equivalent to a one percentage point tax on incomes. Meanwhile, the dollar, which usually falls when the Fed is cutting rates, has flown to 15-year highs as investors have bet on a speedier economic recovery in the United States than in Europe or Japan. As the dollar has strengthened, a growing number of economists have warned that a mighty U.S. dollar could be a major impediment to a global economic turnaround, preventing the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates, hurting commodity producing emerging markets and dampening American growth by pushing up U.S. export prices. Greenspan is expected to be coy in his remarks on the dollar, since the currency is the preserve of the U.S. Treasury Department. He will likely acknowledge the dollar is hurting export growth while noting the strength reflects foreign investors' confidence in the economy's recovery potential and helps the U.S. economy by keeping inflation low. The Goldman Sachs financial conditions index, which is a weighted average of short-term rates, corporate bond yields, share prices and the trade-weighted dollar, has actually edged higher over the last six months. This shows the markets' response to the Fed rate cuts has only been one-fifth as powerful as the average during the major easings since 1983, according to Goldman. ``Given that downside risks still predominate, Fed officials would not be unhappy if the testimony cheered the markets up a bit,'' said Ed McKelvey, an economist at Goldman Sachs. Greenspan gives the first round of his semi-annual Congressional testimony to the House Financial Services committee starting at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Wednesday. He will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on July 24. In terms of the content of his remarks, Greenspan is expected to repeat the balanced tone of a speech he made to economists at the New York Economic Club in late May. In that speech he said: ``The period of sub-par economic growth is not yet over, and we are not free of the risk that economic weakness will be greater than currently anticipated, requiring further policy response. But we also need to be aware that our front-loaded policy actions this year should be providing substantial support for a strengthening of economic activity later this year.'' ``The more Greenspan emphasizes the downside risks, the better it is for bonds. The more he talks up the recovery, talking about the extent of Fed easing to date, the tax cut etc., the worse it will be for bonds,'' said Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown. Hooper said Treasuries were usually hypersensitive to the chairman's discourse, with the average move in two-year yields a whopping 12 basis points. Financial markets are pricing in a 70 percent chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark 3.75 percent federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point when it meets at the end of August.>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39159)	7/18/2001 7:49:55 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

JW - 1. The brakes are in effect still on hard. I say that given the situation of a slump that is now comonly being referred to as the worst since the early 80s. As I say given that we are now in full recession and heading down the FED ought to have been agressive and the current rate is not agressive in relation to the worst recession for 20 years ( and probably for over 60 years). As you rightly point out there was an inverted yield curve and I recall many posts warning that inverted yield curves ALWAYS precede recessions. I posted many times that Mr G was targetting the NAZ since he had an irrational obsession with people getting rich from the market. There is still a danger that people could recover their losses and resume their interest in the market and my guess is that Mr G wants to avoid that danger at all costs regardless of the consequences to the economy or the World economy. That in my view is why he has kept the brakes on and keeps the market from recovering or rallying in any meaningfull way. His job now is to once and for all break peoples desire to own equities. He is on his way to succeeding. Best regards, L

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39159)	7/18/2001 10:06:11 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Argentina says it needs no extra funds to pay H2 debt Tuesday July 17, 5:24 pm Eastern Time <<BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, July 17 (Reuters) - Argentina will not need to return to the markets to raise extra funds to meet its medium- and long-term debt payments in the second half of the year, Finance Secretary Daniel Marx said on Tuesday. ``In the second half ... all the medium- and long-term debt totals $4.076 billion, and projected payments from multilaterals and bilaterals add up to $4.677 billion,'' Marx told reporters. ``What we are demonstrating here is that from the point of view of amortizations and payments we have a surplus of $600 million,'' he added, but did not say if a Treasury bill auction scheduled for July 24 had been canceled. The Argentine government said last week it had been effectively cut off from international credit after it was forced to pay ``ruinous'' interest rates of over 14 percent -- the highest in five years -- at its last short-term debt auction on July 10. Marx's comments came after the government clinched the support of provincial governors late Monday for an austerity drive to slash national and provincial budget deficits to zero in an effort to allay fears the government will be unable to meet payments on its hefty $128 billion public debt.>>