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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (44615)	7/17/2001 10:07:18 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Having just purchased Open Wave, a stock that was discussed here maybe a year ago, I have taken another look at the wireless data thing and where the tornado is likely to come from. From my early analysis, I am not real confident in 3G when 2.5 can do so much that makes wireless data so worthwhile on the limited real estate of a cell phone. Then again, a successful 2.5G rollout could create just the carrot telecoms need to accelerate 3G rollout. But for another discussion. News today regarding 2.5G rollout in the States: allnetdevices.com July 17, 2001 AT&T Wireless Tuesday pushed ahead to set the tempo in the wireless industry's race to deliver 3G services by rolling out 2.5G services for Seattle businesses. The newly independent wireless carrier said it will roll out its Global System for Mobile Communications/General Packet Radio Service (GSM/GPRS) network to about 40 percent of the market it serves this year and will cover 100 percent by the end of 2002. The deployment of the GSM/GPRS network lays the foundation for the eventual shift to full 3G protocols. Tuesday's rollout will give Seattle businesses access to information via wireless handsets at data speeds up to 10 times faster than speeds currently available on other existing domestic networks, the company said. "The combination of our 3G technology choice [Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) -- based on GSM], spectrum portfolio, people, partners and financial strength is how we're delivering tomorrow's advanced wireless data services today -- and we're doing it first in our hometown," said John Zeglis, chairman and chief executive officer of AT&T Wireless. "It's been just one week since our split-off from AT&T and we've hit the ground running as the first North American carrier to offer customers an enticing taste of next generation technology." Seattle businesses will be the first to have the opportunity to take the new services for a test drive. In addition to basic features like mobile Internet and e-mail access, two-way text messaging, voice mail and multi-party calling, "first time" services will include unified messaging and always-on high-speed data. The unified messaging feature will allow customers to combine their voicemail and e-mail messages in a single mailbox. Customers can choose to have their e-mail read to them over the phone and can even access their mailbox from their PCs. The company said the always-on high-speed data service allows customers to flip back and forth between voice and data services while on a phone -- either answering a voice call while using the mobile Internet or being notified of incoming e-mail while in voice mode. The upgrade in protocols will also change pricing structures. Because GPRS transmits data via packets, AT&T Wireless will be able to charge by data sent or retrieved, not by airtime incurred. The company said combined data and voice services begin at $50 and include a 1MB allocation for data and a bucket of 400 voice minutes. Incremental use above the allocation will be billed at less than one cent per kilobyte. Of course, the new services can't be accessed without phones that support the GSM and GPRS protocols. To make sure those services are available Motorola Tuesday made its Timeport 7382i GPRS-enabled handset available in the North American market. The phone is priced at $199.99 for AT&T Wireless customers, and features voice activation, Voice Note voice recorder, a WAP-enabled microbrowser, IrDA connectivity and a data port for connectivity to an external device that doesn't support IrDA. Additionally, with Starfish TrueSync software, the phone provides one-step multi-point synchronization with many PIM devices, desktop applications and services. "Motorola and AT&T Wireless are working together to make GPRS a real benefit for consumers," said Tim Cawley, corporate vice president and general manager, North America Region, Motorola. "This means providing the ideal combination of service, applications and handsets. Our Timeport 7382i is designed to provide customers with the ultimate mobile communications experience -- both superior voice features and enhanced access to the mobile Internet." The next step in AT&T Wireless' 3G rollout will be the deployment of EDGE (Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution) beginning in 2002. Finally, the company will overlay UMTS -- also known as WCDMA -- starting in 2003. The company said it has enough spectrum to roll out GSM/GPRS in virtually all of the top 100 U.S. markets and to launch full 3G in more than 70 of the top U.S. markets. It also doesn't hurt that AT&T wireless is now a separate, wireless only unit. With Sprint PCS going forward this should create some nice competition in the States, even if Sprint is doing things the Q way and AT&T wireless is not. But as to what 2.5G can offer, here is a demonstration from OpenWave regarding their new browser. It seems to me to be just what the doctor ordered for such a device: openwave.com Click the phone on the left for the quick demo. What is it that one wants to do on a cell phone with data? Oen thing I'd like to do is make a tee time at a golf course, or get messages from the school if my kid doesn't show up, or send a quick note messenger style, as well as order drinks at a restaurant, call up a map, check my messages and e-mail, order tickets, pay for a vending machine, etc. None of these things require high bandwidth, and the cellphone is just not a great medium for it, even if it did. What 2.5G provides is always on with sufficient bandwidth to make the above tasks pleasant and practical. Whether or not 3G will quickly be rolled out depends on bandwidth efficiency and operational efficiency factors I think, because I don't think immediate 3G killer applications will be immediately apparent to bother with the additional expense. So I'm at no loss at to killer 2.5G applications. I am for killer 3G applications. Tinker P.S. I personally have no knowledge, but knowledgeable posters on the Fool have told me that broadband wireless tests over 3G equipment has demonstrated heat and battery life problems, with some handsets getting too hot to hold and battery life being cut to minutes from hours. Don't know how bad it is, but I don't think the entire value chain for mass adoption of 3G is technologically there quite yet. At least not on small cellular phones.