Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (92468)	7/18/2001 9:57:48 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Another key thought on the Oilpatch here: All the ususal sniping & ankle biting from the "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" Chihuahua crowd on whether the OSX has hit a bottom here is a moot point (but, isn't it amazing how they allways show back up here, after losing thier A$$)... it's completely and TOTALLY inconsequential as far as these threads are concerned. The vast majority of Oilpatch Bulls didn't take any significant profits off the table here in OSX, or E&P Nat Gas plays anywhere near the top... THAT's the point. ...they could have gotten out at OSX 120 in April of last year - nearly 15 months ago for crying out loud... the STORY here is not about calling "BOTTOMS" - it's about TOPS ! If you didn't take huge pieces off at the tops - re-buying bottoms hardly matters ? ... and some of us have noticed that the chihuahua's seem to be fully invested all the time at the tops - which they've never sold; but then seem to have endless streams of funds to continually keep buying bottm, after bottom, after bottom... (VBG)? ... In this cycle we had 2 primary entry bottoms that attracted Oilpatch Bulls. "THE" bottom in late 1998, very early 1999 - in which very few posters here - entered. Then we had the 50% upcycle explosive move during those 4-5 weeks in March to April 1999 from OSX 45 to 75ish and "that" move finally brought in the 2nd wave of Oilpatch Bulls who still got in at a pretty attractive level. The "REAL" winners in this Oilpatch cycle are those who either exited on a portfolio weighted basis on the Spring 2000 rally to 120, into the initial 140 top in late/Aug-early Sept 2000, or into any of the "triple top" OSX 135ish resistance failures this spring - with the final May OSX 135 rally - occuring into the clear realization that we had a now unquestionable slowing global economy AND a reversal in the supply trend in BOTH the AGA & API's... "THAT" my friends - as this thread called it.... was "THE" - Fire in the Threatre EXIT call.... that is where the reward to risk ratio just collapsed in the 'patch. There are so many bottoms in this volatile sector - that calling interim bottoms is not the key - it's calling TOP's and getting out & staying out - that win's in this game; as miss just one last bottom call, stare into one last "fundamental" headlight & you lose.... as "they" just did... Who care's if this is the bottom... the "bottom" I care about was the one "some" of us were in on - a couple of years ago - THAT was THE bottom & the only one that mattered imo. Yes, there are some "Trades" left, some counter-trend rallies, a DCB play... but why bother ? That's the point... these are the scrap's that are left. These are the HIGH risk - LOW reward plays of the cycle. This is where just one more mistake - can cost you the entire 2+ year cycle's profits and we are witnessing and will continue to witness - the vast majority of Oilpatch Bears give it ALL back to the God of Cyclicals... as they made the fatal mistake of trading cyclicals like growth stocks... If you did not exit on a "portfolio weighted" basis from this Oilpatch cycle last spring at 120, last fall at 140, or this spring at the triple-top failure at 135ish ... you lost... game, set & match; put a fork in it - it's over. The lesson learned here was one of the behavior & madness of crowd's. It was a lesson about greed & then denial. Look back at how we received near complete and total chastisement & flames when this thread began talking about unsustainable sentiment & Gas Prices in late December and had the gall not to just call a top in the Nat Gas/XNG stocks; but to go short the E&P's. - literally; 99.9999999999999999999999 % of iNet threadsters chastised us for that call... and completely missed a textbook perfect euphoric blow off top. The rode the gas stocks right on down - buying/doubling down into the abyss ... just like they did in the Sept 1999 E&P collapse. So few, so very few; learned ANYTHING from the 97-98 OSX cycle, let alone the intermin patterns like the Sept '99 E&P blow off taught us. Literally every single time anyone on this thread brought up warning signals based upon similarities to the "Deja Vu-all over again" nature of this cycle to that of 97-98 - we were met with a Chihuahua torrent of "this time it's different" - "it's a new paradigm, multi-year/decade expansion cycle" - "there's an ENERGY CRISIS" etc... The Nat Gas story - MACRO exit call made here on this thread was not made off of the fundamentals, or the technicals - it was made off of the Bulls themselves ! ... it was the "madness of their crowd" - it was their greed, their blindness, their denial that "WE" traded off of ~ Then the 2nd "MACRO" call for this cycle made on this thread was the service & driller Exit Call here of late. All thru April & May we pointed out all the insider selling, the break in commodity prices, the ominous 97-98 Deja Vu - double top charts forming in many individual stocks ... and MOST importantly - we pointed out that the single most important fundamentals of all fundamentals... "THE ECONOMY - stupid" was collapsing and that the supply build trend in "BOTH" the AGA's & the API's was not just reversing, but reversing with a rapidity that should be setting of "12 Alarm Fire" exit signals all across the patch... but, what happened once again ? ... we were subjected to yet another complete denial torrent from the "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof Chihuahua Oil Bulls"... we were wrong... the story was intact, the fundamentals in earnings were being ignored, prices were still historically high, we were going to new highs etc... but; what happened to the OSX ? ... IT COLLAPSED. It ignored Matt Simmon's new paradigm mantra, it ignored the earnings fundamentals, the still lofty level of combined Oil & Gas prices and instead it reacted to..... drum roll pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze: 1. A slowing Global Economy 2. Rising supply trend builds in the AGA AND API's Yes; supply trends led shareprices (whodathunkit) and the shareprice collapse we are witnessing will also lead the commodity price collapse that is continuing & as now being mouthed by the article posted here today on the $21 call & the IEA's 7th consecutive downward demand revision. ... and we got a 97-98 Deja Vu - all over again cycle collapse in the OSX. whodthunkit ? It's the TOPS - stupid ! ... getting out & staying out (on a portfolio weighted basis)somewhere near the TOP is the key. Allways has been, allways will be. Deja-Vu all over again... it's such a wondefull thing. PS: what happened to the technical rally here ? ... what happened to the one at OSX 115, 108, 102, 96, 88, 84 ?