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Politics : War -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Clarke who wrote (2416)	7/20/2001 9:54:50 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 23908

Top Chinese scholars view the exciting century ahead So much has changed in China in the last quarter of a century that an emerging trade power, boasting the fastest growing Internet market in the world, would have been impossible to predict as recently as 1978, when the late Deng Xiaoping opened the country and launched his economic reforms. From the ashes of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution in 1976, China has posted record growth rates and taken its place among the major world powers. To get a glimpse of what lies ahead in the new century, here are predictions of some of China's leading scholars. THE ECONOMY Professor Ma Zongshi, Senior Researcher, Institute of World Development. Mr. Ma has a conservative scenario for China's economic growth in the new century. He visualizes the realization in full of the country's modernization dream by the end of the 21st century, after another 20 five-year plans (2000-2100) and five doublings of its GNP. By the end of the new century, China will have a projected 1.6 billion population and an estimated $25,000 per capita income, he says (the corresponding figure for the U.S. should then be about $80,000). Professor Ma continues that the current regional distinction between the coastal areas and the hinterland will be eliminated. The country will regain global status in advanced science and technology. He makes this broad-brush sketch: 1) A doubling of the 2000 GNP in a decade (2001-2010) with the initial market mechanisms firmly established. 2) A doubling of the 2010 GNP in two decades (2011-2030), with a mature market mechanism in place and large advances seen in the development of the backward central and western areas of the country. 3) A doubling again of the 2030 GNP in another two decades (2031-2049), with the task of modernization largely realized. China will then become a medium-level advanced country at the centenary of the founding of the New China, with the population at 1.5 billion and a $4,000 per capita income as Deng Xiaoping envisaged. 4) A doubling of the 2049 GNP in still another three decades (2050-2079) at the centenary of China's reform program, with the entire country having undergone a comprehensive renewal, and the country's population stabilized at 1.5 to 1.6 billion. 5) A doubling of the 2079 GNP in yet another two decades (2080-2100), with China becoming a full-fledged advanced country, having a $25,000 per capita income and catching up to the U.S. in GNP. China may or may not match the U.S. in per capita terms by the end of the 22nd century as U.S. Professor Nicholas Lardy has predicted. But much depends on how fast the country attains a leading sci-tech position. Noted economist Li Jinwen predicts that China will retain an average annual 7 to 7.5 and 6 to 6.5 percent growth rates respectively in the first two decades of the new century. It will then rank third in the world in GNP terms after the U.S. and Japan, while surpassing Germany and France. During this period, major industrial restructuring will occur, with primary industries declining and tertiary industries growing. Major strides are expected in such sectors as education, information services, financial consultancy, accounting and legal services with the possibility of forming independent follow-up industries. The share of high-tech enterprises will also rise from the current 12 percent to about 20 percent of secondary industries. [snip] china2thou.com Also worth a look: newyouth.com