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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (727)	7/18/2001 11:11:47 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 1328

I wasn't drawing a conclusion as to prognistication. I just found that I needed more data for a comparison: May 23, 2000 July 17, 2001 SPX 3164 2067 total assets w/ just Nova vs. Ursa S&P bull funds 427 285 S&P bear funds 378 229 total assets when adding in Dynamic funds S&P bull funds 427 392 S&P bear funds 378 298 total assets when adding in sector funds to bull S&P bull funds 427 1362 S&P bear funds 378 298 total assets when adding in MM assets to bear S&P bull funds 427 1362 S&P bear funds 2018 1682 OEX 3164 2067 total assets w/ just OTC vs. Arktos OTC bull funds 2477 1151 OTC bear funds 179 65 total assets when adding in Dynamic funds OTC bull funds 2477 1319 OTC bear funds 179 132 total assets when combining the last rows for S&P and OTC funds which include sector funds for the bulls and MM funds for the bears bull funds 2904 2681 bear funds 2197 1814 source: MITA thread I'm not sure if his Nova, Ursa, OTC, Arktos, etc. include both the Advisor and Investor series of the respective funds. This would also impact the asset counts.

To: JRI who wrote (727)	7/18/2001 11:38:40 AM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1328

JT's rydex data is useful but I think you can approach it like stochastics, i.e. capable of staying oversold or overbought for some time. I wonder too about 401k investors, the opposite of the rydex group. There was a publicity blip last week about 401k investors starting to notice the decrease in year to year performance. If they reallocate out of the market even a small percent that could be a real force. Some companies, for example are implementing computer programs that alert their employees when they are overweight in stocks. Also, as longer term unemployment ratchets up you would think this impacts the 401k investment pool. Hopefully, this will effect will reverse soon. But in the meantime it could propel the market lower even after all of the rydex investors are out. Another way of looking at Rydex investors is as market liquidity. There was some interesting posts about the fed injecting liquidity last week. Yet, the market has not rallied as much as some were expecting. This would be c/w the idea that after a bubble bursts it has difficulty attracting liquidity.