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Strategies & Market Trends : Mu Gamma Lambda -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (2234)	7/18/2001 11:18:41 AM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10077

I will have to read that in further detail but the "shock line" seems a bit "National Enquirerish." I'm not educated enough to battle the stats nor will I totally discount them as I have not read the whole article. I will say that in times like what we've seen it becomes very easy to create a stir with negative headlines. Does that mean its wrong? No. Like I said....I'm not educated to the level that the people who crafted this letter are. I do have my doubts however. Times are tougher than the 90's. The market saw a huge and in many cases unwarranted jump in value. Now, we all must get beyond that easy money syndrome and start playing the market correctly - As a cyclical vehicle. Just My ignorant opinion

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (2234)	7/18/2001 11:27:55 AM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10077

That's an interesting thesis.....but I can't say I totally agree with it. The statistics the U.S. keeps on exports are not entirely accurate, and tend to understate the real valuation of the export of services and technology expertise, which due to our high labor costs and lack of manufacturing excellence are the major things the U.S. has that others want. So while it may be that there was a surplus bubble in U.S. demand over the past few years, I don't know if it is reasonable to conclude that the trade "imbalance", if it even exists, will cause a sustained decline. I am more of the opinion that this will be about two years of very little or no growth, maybe slightly negative. That's eight quarters, and we're in the third one already probably. So early 2003 is when the ship starts to sail forward again, as I see it. Since the market usually anticipates that by a year or so, we may be looking at a bottom early next year and then a series of higher lows and more sustained rallies in 2002.