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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (113232)	7/18/2001 4:05:38 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz: I see today as a possible watershed. INTC last night tried to pull a couple of fast ones, but many analysts aren't buying it. Several other significant companies also chimed in with ugly warnings/ reports (AOL/Time, Apple, Veritas, etc.) Greenspan actually came as close to "warning" as he is capable of doing and tonight, we get Louis. If he stumbles or warns, they will take a chainsaw to a few of our favourites tomorrow, option expiry or not. The bet at this end is that: - IBM misses rather substantially on Revs (there are consequential problems in most divisions). - They meet the latest (reduced) profit forecast, but enough accounting sleight-of-hand is required that the cheerleader analysts are embarrassed and the small band of disenchanted analysts draw beads on Louis' forehead. - The debt increase becomes an emerging concern, maybe even an issue. - We may even be able to discern a bit of evidence of "aggressive" front end loading of revs/earnings recognition with respect to the company's service business. - While Louis will be loath to warn (with respect to H2), the guidance that emerges from some uncharacteristically tough questioning from analysts might just force an admission that Big Blue's world is not a bed of roses. Louis is between a rock and a hard place here, as the insider selling has been significant. The truth would make this look bad, but a lie, later exposed, would be cause for a public hanging under the circumstances. Louis wouldn't want to feed his stock market gains to lawyers or the SEC, so he will be very careful this time around. I await his words with great interest. (g) Best, Earlie