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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FLACK who wrote (40525)	7/18/2001 1:22:11 PM
From: stan_hughes	Respond to of 100058

FLACK - Quite the laundry list of highs. I'm not in a position to say whether those will be longtime high water marks, but I concede they could be. Another interesting stat - if one classifies the boomers as those born between 1946 and 1966, that would mean the 1998/1999/2000 series of tops co-incided with people aged 32-52, give or take. That isn't the age bracket at which most people would be expected to retire and begin deconstructing their equity portfolios and move into bonds. Slowdown or not, the vast majority of these people are still working, making bigger bucks than ever in fact, and they are socking dollars into IRAs and the like. Some of that money is regularly channelled into equities, although perhaps not as aggressively as in the past, and perhaps not as exclusively into longer time horizon growth situations (like a lot of tech). Now the money is going into older established large caps, which is why the INDU has held up. I believe this explains why businesses like KO are trading at historically high multiples. It is chiefly based on this capital flow logic that I believe we are going to see another hurrah before the bull goes to that big arena in the sky. However, picking the right segment of the market to be in is going to be critical, and tech has a few strikes against it. I'm not trying to advance the notion that traditional stocks are "undervalued" per se, just that they have been, and will continue to be, the target of a lot of incoming buying over the next decade. Long INDU and short COMPX might be a great arb if you don't like outright long.