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To: H James Morris who wrote (128523)	7/18/2001 4:50:47 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

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To: H James Morris who wrote (128523)	7/18/2001 4:58:30 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

HJ: I thought it was going to be just tech -- but now I am concerned that we are seeing a "mini-peak" in the cyclicals. All logic points towards a continued gathering of steam for the cyclicals -- but that will not happen if the economy continues to soften. And the economy CAN continue to soften. This should not be so, but I am afraid it just might be the case. You mentioned before that rising unemployment need not be a big problem -- that is one area where I am concerned and I do not fully agree with you. When people are concerned about the possibility of losing their job, even if they don't lose it they change their buying behavior -- and that can snowball as weaker consumer spending translates into slower sales and consequently more uncertain job prospects. The export picture is especially bleak.