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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (12906)	7/18/2001 5:44:08 PM
From: Fred Levine	Respond to of 17183

FWIW-- I bought more Jan 17.50 calls at $3.60, or abt 1/2 the price of my previous confident buy. I'll keep my bloomers on. We know that IT spending is down substantially, and we know that it will return and, in fact, expand. What no one knows-- I repeat no one--is when the recovery will begin. Given the speculation caused by analysts being pressured to know the unknowable, we have conditions for a volitile market as many of us are looking for signs of the future. Now, my question is how can I use this uncertainty to make gains? Obviously, I have no guarantees and the risks are considerable, but my bet is that some reliable and signs will emerge before my Jan 02 expiration day, and the sign will be positive. If not, I'm wrong again! I have learned to handle it. fred

To: JDN who wrote (12906)	7/18/2001 9:56:42 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Respond to of 17183

i have some troubles with the EMC report: 1. they blame the economy too much. If you substitute the word sales for the word economy, then you are talking... 2. Reutgerrs was silent. 3. The days of high profit margins are gone. Once they are forced to discount sharply to make sales, that's the new baseline price. the refrigerator sized iron was overpriced. 4. No guidance at all is a very bad sign. I suspect they know they will never again get the high profit margins back. However, all seem to say, notably Bill Fischofer, that storage is vital and irreplaceable, not discretionary spending... However, so far as the year 2001 goes, this seems to be untrue. It may be the last of the tech myths to fall Storage spending can be cut back on just like any other item Now if EMC had a build to order just in time system like Dell, I'd feel somewhat better. FWIW, I am almost all cash now and very disillusioned... in another quarter or so, there will be some amazing bargains... but I worry that as one analyst put it, EMC"s business model is in doubt. Now the company can be seen as "Extraordinary Mark-up Company" in Mike Dell's phrase.???

To: JDN who wrote (12906)	7/18/2001 10:56:58 PM
From: Gus	Respond to of 17183

What are you saying? And we all shall walk in the valley of fears. Chill out, JDN. Didn't yo' momma ever tell you not to average down in any stock in the midst of an industry price war and a cooling global economy? Like I said, there's a major price war going on. For all practical purposes, 2001 is a lost year for most technology companies in terms of stock appreciation. Range-bound, the competitive positioning has already started for the eventual recovery. The best thing that sellside analysts can do is get out of the way of the eventual recovery by clustering around the lowest end of those post-REG FD forecasts. Some think the recovery will start in 2H2002 and some think that the recovery will start in 1H2003. There are even those who think that the recovery will never come until the Euro assumes <cough> co-equal <cough> status with the US Dollar. Different histories, Different risk cultures, Co-equal currencies. Can pigs fly?