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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (25629)	7/18/2001 7:08:40 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

Ditch and KW, today we had good news regarding the Eurozone's economic revival and a negative response to Greenspan's message. Greenspan's comments that the US economy is not out of the woods and the Europeans' fresh stats indicating that inflation in Europe is lower than previously believed put some pressure on the US dollar. If that isn't enough, add in the CPI numbers, which indicate that the Fed doesn't have much more room to cut interest rates anyway. A rate cut of more than 1/8 would put the Fed rate at a lower rate than inflation, a move that would totally erode confidence in our economy. The reaction to today's news was that lower inflation in Europe will allow the Euro Zone to lower interest rates to spur their economy while the US is running out of options...once again renewing worries that Euro growth will outpace US growth. So, is the gold rally for real? It's too early to tell. Don't use the XAU as a gauge. The XAU includes gold and silver. When gold rallies, there will be a divergence in the relative strengh between gold and other precious metals. The GOX measures just gold: 66.59.141.65 As you noted, the channel is worth watching. The GOX is in a trading range and has not broken out of its channel. Any one have a good site for comparative charts on world currencies? Sergio

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (25629)	7/19/2001 7:09:26 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Looks like there could be a little resistance for gold at 272..I'll be watching, should be home most of the day today to watch the action<g> thebulliondesk.com Click on bullion, chart and nice java quotes.. (link courtesy of "now she's blonde", she comes up with some great links) .......................interesting article ....................... "With the precision of hindsight, had one simply bought gold shares when the metal dipped below $265/oz and closed out that position and then short-sold the metal at $272, do that a few times and the 60ft yacht in Monaco would have been long paid off." (we'll see if she can break through) ... Article: "Gold rally looms but don't get greedy" Gold Rally Looms but Don't Get Greedy By: Byron Kennedy Posted: 07/08/2001 04:00:00 PM \| © Miningweb 1997-2001 The gold price has become far too predictable. In fact the yellow metal's performance over the past ten months has become more like watching a grand prix. Instead of a start/finish line, gold's inevitability is that it will return to the $265 per ounce "position" before setting off yet again on a treacherous albeit accustomed course. The charts show that gold has traded in a narrowish range (between $260 to $280) since August 2000 with a few brief spin-offs along the way. Little more than a month ago there was that turbo-boost through $290/oz that had eternal gold bulls in full chorus. Earlier in the year mine bosses experienced testing moments when gold sank to around £256, the sort of level that, if sustained for a reasonable length of time, results in mine closures and the mothballing of expansion projects. With the precision of hindsight, had one simply bought gold shares when the metal dipped below $265/oz and closed out that position and then short-sold the metal at $272, do that a few times and the 60ft yacht in Monaco would have been long paid off. While the trend is there for everyone to see, the gift horse repeatedly gets asked to open wide. It's become so obvious that one fund manager even admitted that, had he been a trader, cashing in on the gold market is a "no-brainer". Never mind the well-documented GATA conspiracy. Forget about the much-awaited catapult to $320/oz and beyond. Had you simply followed that ghastly cliché - kept the trend your friend – it would have been akin to having exclusivity to print dollars. Only problem, though, is that investors are sceptics when it comes to the obvious. If it looks too easy to make money, then usually there's a catch. But with gold clocking customarily through $265/oz on Friday and with it the prospect of at least another $7 round-trip – might the cash cow have finally run dry? Unquestionably it's only the sheer foolhardy that will attempt to make that kind of prediction with any degree of certainty. Having said that, there is an air of confidence about the future direction of bullion – at least in the eyes of London-based industry experts. JP Morgan Fleming's Ian Henderson, who manages one of just three surviving specialist resource funds in the UK, admits that he's "better disposed towards gold than previously". He says that it now "possible to become optimistic about the gold price as it doesn't look as if it wants to break the trend on the downside". "I don't get a sense that there's a lot of fear or anxiety in the [gold] market – it's more a result of people not doing things." What does he mean by that? Quite simply that speculators have changed tactics. "They got bored playing the short side since lease rates cracked through two per cent; now it's a case of going long for a change." But Henderson admits that, in spite of the gold price sitting near the bottom of a $265 to $290 range, he expects it to "continue for a considerable length of time" – and that he "hadn't done much about it" as far as his JPMF commodity share fund is concerned. One of the larger tweaks that he did make to his portfolio was buying into Randgold & Exploration before the group announced plans to pay a bonanza dividend. With the portfolio 99.3% already invested in shares, the dilemma that Henderson now faces, if he's to increase his exposure to gold, is which stocks to sell. Another to add its voice to those of the gold bulls is JP Morgan's stock brokerage. Its latest technical report states that gold could be in for a corrective rally to $279/oz, given the fact that daily oscillators are of an oversold nature. Expect gold to rally to $273 to $275 in the week ahead, according to JP Morgan's sell-side research team. UBS Warburg's precious metals expert, John Reede, also reckons that, at around $265/oz, gold is "pretty close to the bottom". He's quick to add that his call is dependent on the dollar not strengthening further. But don't hold your breath for a rapid bounce. According to Reede, one can expect the gold price to trend towards $275/oz following the imminent (Wednesday) Bank Of England gold auction. Reede is another that suggests range trading has been the "way to go" and that the trend is likely to continue. Almost in stuck-record fashion, HSBC reiterates the view that gold's fundamentals are "currently better than they have been for some time". HSBC says gold's recent weakness has been a consequence of funds liquidating long positions following weaker lease rates and a marginal increase in liquidity. It is another that expects gold to firm with a price target of $285/oz in 2002 compared with 2001's call of $270/oz. Clearly the message from buy and sell side professionals is almost unanimous – there's a gold rally on its way but don't get too greedy. Downside risk, they say, is not as great a threat as it has been in recent months. Cynics, on the other hand, will say this sounds precisely like the fighting talk to tempt short-sellers back into the game.