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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (128555)	7/18/2001 8:13:20 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I am just catching a plane -- but yes, I do see reasons why it will fail at this point. The need for consumers to fix their balance sheets, the dollar and the weakness in foreign markets and some shifts in drivrs at the product/innovation level.

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (128555)	7/19/2001 2:27:48 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

>> I suppose that if, over the next few months, the market prices in the chance of a recession, then stocks will drop. Given the lukewarm reaction to Q2 earnings so far this is a plausible possibility << what if the economy stages a modest rebound but stocks continue to go nowhere because valuations come down? how come no one ever entertains that notion? why must everyone assume that if the economy recovers all the bubble stocks will maintain their ridiculous multiples? >> However, I don't see any reason why stimulus is particularly likely to fail this time around..do you? << i do, but i'm sure this particular bearish argument has been detailed by myself and others before.