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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rashomon who wrote (20882)	7/18/2001 8:45:15 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

I did mention it as potential BK case about a month ago in #reply-15970593 yet, there are going to be 25% plus bounces on this one. It surely is not one you want to get "married to". Yet they have more cash on hand to burn relative to burn rate than other companies we are looking at, like VLNC for instance. I estimate that the "coup de grace" will not come until the middle of next year, and if by then they can turn the ship around, they have quite a position in a market that is not going to die that fast. I figure that their "break even" point before interest charges is around $1.2 B, beyond that point the margins start to become quite good. Looking at this one here, for instance, and at VLNC two years ago, I would say EXDS has a better chance of survival. If they survive, they could easily go to the $6 to $8 range. I am not buying it for that, however, just trying to catch a wave up to the $1.6/$1.8 area for a solid 28% to 44% gain, but do not stay over night, at least, not too often (g). Zeev