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To: Roebear who wrote (92552)	7/18/2001 8:25:34 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear, I agree with Heinz that the strong dollar is going to reverse and soon. Not necessarily because US export oriented industries want it (though it will certainly help them), but because investment flows from overseas will seize up. The imbalances holding the dollar up are just too unstable. Unfortunately, I can't pick out what the catalyst might be (or maybe we just saw it today). Any hint of problems in the U.S. banking system won't be favorably received by the foreign investors who hold the key. When I look at global investment opportunities, certainly Japanese equities offer better value (on the whole). The European financial industry isn't nearly as loaded up with debt and shaky credits as the U.S's. Obviously derivatives, hedge funds and what Doug Noland calls the "leveraged speculating community" can come unglued at any time (and probably will). That's why I'm positioned in gold NOW, and in some short situations, and lots of cash. I have some hedges on the Euro, but they're minor. The BEST case I can see for the U.S. is a long but otherwise garden variety recession w/ongoing disinflation. The government's to response to that will likely be inflationary, if the cure "takes" then silver and gold will fly and the Dollar WILL implode. So physical silver makes sense (in addition to it's supply/demand characteristics which are attractive). Regards Patron

To: Roebear who wrote (92552)	7/18/2001 9:17:48 PM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 95453

Hello Roebear, "the dollar's strength is bad for everybody right now - in the US, it crimps the attempts at reflating the economy" It crimps corporate profits (corps doing business overseas and converting revs back to US $'s)..But the catch 22, a lower us$ makes the US debt all that more difficult to service..I believe this is why greenie is walking the fence line on the issue of the dollars strength.Not to mention the "flight to safety" aspect of attracting overseas cash(fear of losing that inflow)...damned if you do, and damned if you don't<g>..JMHO,DD