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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (6008)7/18/2001 11:26:58 PM
From: westpacific  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Nice summary Mike - thank you.

West



To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (6008)7/19/2001 6:34:26 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
TM, I think you've got it all wrong. I think a LOT of people love to hate Alan Green$pan and their thinking gets coloured and florid as it does when they think of $ill Gates. Alan Green$pan said it all just so! Great stuff. The USA should be thrilled that they have such great people to run the place [not to mention the world too].

<Since April we've "bottomed" and everyone still believes technology stocks are overvalued. They just don't think that matters.>

Wrong. Everyone who bought [which just happens to exactly match all those who have sold] think that stocks are NOT overvalued. People don't buy overvalued things [especially now that there is no greater-fool theory or momentum theory to depend on which tempted some to buy stocks they thought were overvalued during the euphoria Alan mentioned in his testimony.

<. If the markets make a new low before the year is over they will completely crash and the final bull marke conviction - that Greenspan is the investor's friend- will be destroyed. You'll see a crisis of confidence across the country over the men of power running the financial system. Greenspan will become the chief villian and the Scared Crow will be blown across the fields as Bush and the Treasury Secretary look on in worry. Let's hope things don't come to that, but with the odds of a second half recovery quickly dimming, it is looking more and more likely. The Fed has spent its bullets.>

The Fed hasn't spent its bullets. They can cut interest rates more. They can print untold new dollars. The rest of those comments are just-so stories which we all have our favourite ideas about.

<He says that businesses will resume capital spending because of the opportunities of technology. Well, why would they do that now all of a sudden when there is a huge glut of technology goods out there? >

They would do so to remain competitive, get customers and to cut costs. They will keep on buying and inventories will reduce. Production will go on increasing because there are 6 billion people wanting all this new technology.

<What Greenspan doesn't mention is the source of all of this which is his knee-jerk Scared Crow drop in interest rates back in 1998 to bail out banks which had given bad loans to third world nations. His policies created the stock market bubble and the unwinding of that bubble is what is causing the current downturn. His policies are the cause of the bear market and the hundreds of thousands of people who lost their jobs this year. >

Totally wrong. The stock market bubble was well underway well before 1998. Internet mania was the main driving force, but also Nasdaq irrational exuberance by hordes of novice investors. The dot.com and tech mania unfortunately coincided with the need to increase liquidity to cope with the Asian contagion and the great financial panic of 1998. The increase in liquidity was not a knee-jerk reaction. It was thoughtful.

The mania created a huge, undeserved, wealth effect and boom. It had to deflate. Increasing interest rates was one way to tame the margined mania.

The subsequent unemployment was a direct result of dumb investment decisions. People started all sorts of dot.nonsense, ran an IPO up the flagpole, employed a horde of website developers and went broke because few people were buying their services or products [which was obviously going to happen]. They caused their own unemployment by having dumb ideas. It was nothing to do with my hero.

Other techstocks were also over-rated. As well as other stock markets. There was a worldwide euphoria as the tech-gusher was tapped. Unfortunately, the gusher didn't gush!

There are other points too which I disagree with, but that's it for now.

Hooray for Alan Green$pan!
Mqurice



To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (6008)7/19/2001 7:04:52 AM
From: Ilaine  Respond to of 74559
 
This is what Greenspan said:

>>The evident attractiveness of investment opportunities in the United States induced substantial inflows of funds from abroad, raising the dollar's exchange rate while financing a growing portion of domestic spending.<<

This is your comment:

>>The last line is the current account deficit: the flow of foreign money into the United States to finance corporate debt and the trade deficit.<

Money which is invested in the US from abroad isn't in the current account, it's in the capital account - which is running a surplus.

From dismal.com: "The current account report reflects the movement of non-capital items in the balance of payments account."

dismal.com