Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (2848)	7/18/2001 9:18:56 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5893

JUST IN FROM A GREAT DINNER WITH FRIENDS THOUGHT I WOULD POST MY SUNDAY'S NEWSLETTER FOR DA TROOPS.. BEST OF LUCK TO YOU ALL OUT THERE... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JULY 15TH 2001 Good Evening everyone...i hope this report finds you and yours in good health and spirits... Tonight after a wonderful weekend of sun, fun, surf & turf<g>...ahhhh the lobster was awesome with a nice cold charrdonay...i have checked the charts, i have looked at all the indexs, and i am warning us all..be ultra cautious for the week ahead...While we all enjoyed the long side call late in the evening of the YHOO & MOT report...and as you know i "said"..there will be a "trigger" for a pop "from out of the blue"..he he he...well...it wasn't IBM yet???..it was Mr. Softie....MSFT...that started a nice 2 day rally as we head into the Carpino top here on the 17th plus or minus 1 day... Please remember this...Carpino and all the market timers are just trying to suggest these cycles and Price Time Balance points using what ever they use to calculate the numbers...All i do is add to it my own read of all the charts using P&F and Candlesticks, and suggest where I think we are going...We are timing these moves at about a 90% clip..This is very good, as i can see my account balances moving up here with authority...I have decided to NOT scalp or do much daytrading...The Markets are swinging nicely for 2-3-4 days in a row either Short or Long..and i would suggest to try to use this longer time frame and make more money with less stress... Kick back a bit and relax your trading...It's the summer remember??? hang with the kids, family and friends...we do trade year round YES???..While i understand earnings are coming out in earnest...and things are of "the essence"..Hey Folks..they are ALWAYS OF THE ESSENCE" RIGHT???<G>... Now here's my thinking for the near term....As i looked at all the charts, IMO it's do or die time again...we either breakout up and out with power, or we're going to roll over and down very very hard...If we have failed attempts at this current rally again, i fear the worst COULD happen shortly...we are currently doing a backside bounce in ALL the indexs we know and love...WE MUST BREAK OUT NOW!!!!..no ifs ands or BUTTS...let's reveiw the indexs we all watch.. DOW--INDU----IT'S RUN UP AND INTO THE BSL(BULLISH SUPPORT LINE) FROM BELOW...AT 10,500..LAST WEEK AS WE RALLIED UP, THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO GAINS ON THE P&F CHARTS...ZERO...DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IS THE 40EMA & 200EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...THIS SHOULD "STOP" THE ADVANCE...SO CAUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM..UNLESS WE BREAKOUT...REMEMBER THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN A DCB(DEAD CAT BOUNCE)..."FOR NOW"....WE HAVE MADE 4 CONSECUTIVE LOWER TOPS SINCE THE MAY 22ND RUNNUP...10,650 CHANGES THIS TREND AS IT GIVES THE "FIRST" BUY SIGNAL IN THIS LATEST SELLOFF...PLEASE SET ALERTS ON ALL THE INDEXS AND OF COURSE STOCKS... NAZ---COMPX---SAME BASIC CHART ONLY WEAKER...ANOTHER BACKSIDE BOUNCE UP INTO HEAVY R(RESISTANCE) AT THE 20 & 40EMA'S AND THE BRL(BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE) IS RIGHT OVERHEAD AT 2200 IF WE CAN GET THERE??....2250 WOULD BE THE BUY TRIGGER..2300 THE TEST OF TOP...DOUBT WE SEE EITHER OF THOSE NUMBERS... SOX---RIGHT AT THE BRL LINE HERE AT 640...FROM THE TOP IN MAY, IT HAS "NOT" BROKEN THIS LINE...ALL THE WAY DOWN...660 IS THE TICKET OUT OF HELL...540 IS TROUBLE AS IT'S A 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN OFF THIS LOWER TOP AGAIN...AND THEN 460 WOULD NOT SHOCK ME...WE ALL MUST WATCH THIS INDEX...I AM HEAVILY IN THE SEMIS BUT I'M GOING TO EXIT EITHER MON-TUES UNLESS WE BREAKOUT ON ALL INDEXS....THE SOX IS RIGHT NOW DOING A BACKSIDE BOUNCE INTO THE 20 & 40EMAS ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART... NDX---KISSING COUSIN TO THE NAZ...SICKLY CHART, WEAKER THAN WEAK...WE ARE RIGHT NEAR THE BRL LINE AT 1800..1900 WOULD CHANGE THE TREND TO POSITIVE...I THINK AT SOME POINT WE'LL SEE 1400...NDX IS UP AGAINST THE 20 & 40 EMA'S DAILY..."YOU STARTING TO GET THIS PICTURE FOLKS"????... ALL BACKSIDE BOUNCES UP INTO RESISTANCE...THEY NEED..NO NO..THEY "MUST" BREAKOUT HERE OR SELLERS WILL APPEAR AND SLAM THIS MARKET...GOT IT??? SPX---4 CONSECUTIVE LOWER TOPS...FROM THE MAY TOP AT 1310..NEXT CAME 1280--THEN 1240 THEN????...LOOKS LIKE 1220/1230 ANOTHER LOWER TOP...THE ACTUAL P&F BUY SIGNAL LONG WOULD BE 1250...NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENING..I AM SLIGHTLY ENCOURAGED THAT WE BROKE HEAVY R AT 1204..AND THEN THE 20 EMA AT 1213...SO THAT WAS A POSITIVE SO FAR...BUT?????..THERE'S ALWAYS A BUT, RIGHT<G>???..LET'S SEE HOW ALL THESE INDEXS REACT TO THE CARPINO TOP DATE AND WHERE THEY GO FROM THERE, WHAT WITH IBM AND SUNDRY OTHER BIG CAP TECHS REPORTING THIS WEEK...IT'S A MAKE OR BREAK IT WEEK... VIX---I AM REALLY BEGINING TO COORDINATE THIS INDEX WITH CARPINO, P&F, & CANDLES TO TIME OUR MOVES..IT'S WORKING VERY VERY WELL...I CAN "SEE" WHATS GOING ON BETTER AND BETTER AS THIS CHART CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE...IF YOU CHECK THE VIX CHART EITHER CANDLE OR P&F..YOU'LL SEE A RECENT TEST OF TOP AT 28..IT FAILED...IT ALSO RAN RIGHT UP AND INTO THE BRL LINE..LIKE I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS LINE CAN STOP A FREIGHT TRAIN...RIGHT IN IT'S TRACKS...SO WE CATCH A 4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN AS WE RALLY UP HERE...WITH A MAJOR TEST OF THE QUADRUPLE BOTTOM COMING AT 21...A PRINT OF 20 TAKES THIS INDEX TO THE HIGH TEENS 17/18..WHERE WE WILL HAVE A MAJOR CORRECTION...I MEAN BIG TIME SELLOFF...SO WE WATCH IT DEVELOPING ALL THE WHILE MAKING LOWER TOPS AND LOWER BOTTOMS...."THIS IS VERY NEGATIVE GOING FORWARD"...VERY NEGATIVE... HOWEVER....LISTEN UP HERE FOR A SEC....WE COULD REVERSE BACK UP HERE...MEANING WE SELLOFF LATER THIS WEEK, MOVING THE VIX BACK UP IN A 3 BOX REVERSAL AT 27..THEN IF WE GET SLAMMED WE COULD TAKE OUT THE TRIPLE TOP AT 29 SETTING UP A RUN TO 33....THIS IS SENARIO #2...NEITHER ONE IS VERY COOL...NEITHER ONE...CAUTION IS WARRENTED ON THE LONG SIDE FOR NOW... OK IT'S TIME TO LOOK AT STOCKS FROM OUR CURRENT LIST...ALL OPINIONS ARE SWING TYPE TRADES WITH DAYTRADING TRIGGERS TOO... AMAT---BROKE DOWN AT 48 RECENTLY IT WENT TO 46 ON A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN..RALLIED BACK UP TO HEAVY R AT 52..ROLLED OVER AND DOWN AND BROKE THE DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 45 HIT 43, AND IS DOING A DCB HERE..THAT FORMATION IS A BEARISH CATAPULT...THIS LATEST MOVE IS A DCB FOR NOW...49/50 IS OVERHEAD R ON THE DAILY CANDLE AND P&F...IF IT GETS THERE IT'S A SHORT..IT MAY BE SHORTED BY TUES MID DAY....47 3/4 IS THE BUY TRIGGER----45 IS SHORT SALE TRIGGER FOR BOTH DAYTRADERS AND SWING TRADERS...NEXT STOP WOULD BE 37 THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...WATCH THE SOX HERE...IF IT RALLIES UP MON-TUES IT COULD BE REALLY NICE...IF THE MARKETS DO NOT BREAKOUT... CHKP---FROM THE MAY 22ND TOP HAS CONTINUED TO BREAKDOWN...CONSECUTIVE LOWER TOPS AND LOWER BOTTOMS..THE CHART LOOKS VERY WEAK...43 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER FOR DAYTRADERS...41 THE SS TRIGGER FOR BOTH...45/46 IS R...WITH 47 A BUY SIGNAL... CIEN---MAKING ANOTHER FEEBLE ATTEMPT AT A RALLY HERE...PROTRACTED DOWNTREND LIKE CHKP...LOWER TOPS AND BOTTOMS...37/38 IS HEAVY R...CAN BE SHORTED THERE...40 WOULD CHANGE THE TREND...35 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...33 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER... EBAY---MY BABY<G>..I BOUGHT THIS AFTER HOURS ON THE YHOO NEWS AT 61 1/2...IT'S NEARING HEAVY R AT A TEST OF TOP AT 70/71...I'LL SELL IT THERE...I HAVE A SOLID STOP IN PLACE JUST BELOW FRIDAYS LOWS AND THE 20 EMA DAILY HERE AT 65 1/2...IF IT MOVES UP EARLY MON/TUES I'LL JUST TRAIL IT UP TIGHTER...68 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...66 THE SS TRIGGER...A BREAK OF 65 WOULD REVERSE THIS STOCK DOWN OFF A LOWER TOP...NOT A GOOD SIGN... PDLI---THIS STOCK GAVE A PERFECT SELL SHORT TRIGGER AT 81...IT PLUNGED STRAIGHT DOWN WITHOUT A 3 BOX REVERSAL UP RIGHT TO 60 THE BSL(BULLISH SUPPORT LINE)...WHAT A SS....LAST WEEK IT RALLIED RIGHT OFF THAT SUPPORT ON A DCB SO FAR..I WOULD SHORT THIS IF WE START TO SELLOFF NEXT WEEK...ANY BREAK OF THAT BSL AT 59..WOULD TAKE THIS DOWN MUCH MUCH LOWER..SET ALERTS...I THINK IT HAS 54ISH WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...65 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HIGHS AT 66 1/2.....62 3/4 THE SS...WITH A SWING TRADE SHORT IF IT BREAKS DOWN... HGSI---THIS CHART LOOKS VERY WEAK TO ME....CONTINUOUS LOWER TOPS AND BOTTOMS...THE STOCK IS WELL BELOW ALL MVA'S ON THE DAILY CHART...49 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...52 IS R...WITH 53 THE BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...47 1/2 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER...WITH ANY BREAK OF 44 A HOLD SWING SHORT... LET'S UPDATE THE BTK RIGHT HERE THEN I'LL DO 2-3 MORE BIO'S....THE BTK BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM CALLED IN BOTH THE LETTER AND LIVE...AT 570 PLUNGED DOWN TO 510, AND HAS TRIED TO REVERSE BACK UP ON A DCB RIGHT HERE TO 540.....HERE'S THE IF THEN SENARIO...IT COULD RUN UP INTO HEAVY R AT THE ORIGINAL BREAKDOWN AREA AT 560-570...OR...IT COULD RVERSE THIS MEAGER REVERSAL UP ON A PRINT OF 510 SETTING IT UP FOR A MAJOR BREAKDOWN AGAIN..AT 500...THEN YOU COULD JUST HOLD ALL SHORTS TILL THE BOTTOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.... MYGN---THIS CHART LOOKS IDENTICAL TO PDLI & HGSI..PUTRID...LOWER TOPS AND BOTTOMS...IT'S IN A HEAD AND SHOULDERS WITH A POTENTIAL CRASH HERE DOWN TO 41 OR THE APRIL LOWS OF 30 OR SO...NOT A PRETTY SITE FOR ANY OF THESE STOCKS OR CHARTS...THE KEY IS THE BTK INDEX..SET ALERTS AND WATCH IT HARD!!!!!...49 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...53/54 IS R...47 1/4 THE SS...46 HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE<VBG>... MLNM---JUST DOING THE SAME THING HERE..DCB UP INTO HEAVY R AT THE 20 EMA DAILY..THIS STOCK WAS ALWAYS A SHORT AFTER IT BROKE DOWN...IT HAS 23 WRITTEN ALL OVER IT, AS IT'S IN A HEAD AND SHOULDERS WITH THAT AS MY TARGET...33 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER..WITH HEAVY R AT 35/36...YOU COULD SHORT IT THERE IF IT GETS THERE.. 31 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...30 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN....27 DEATH AND DESTRUCTION.. IMCL---IT'S DOING THE SAME THING HERE..RALIED RIGHT UP AGAINST HARD R AT THE 20 & 40 EMA'S ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...THE BRL IS AT 48/49...44 1/4 THE SHORT SALE...43 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN...40 THE SELL SIGNAL AS IT BREAKS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM...WE WOULD HOLD THIS SHORT...46 1/2 THE PERFECT BUY TRIGGER WITH A CLOSE STOP AND QUICK PROFITS AS IT RUNS INTO HEAVY R OVERHEAD... QLGC---HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE 20 EMA DAILY SO FAR...IT REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXES ON THE P&F CHART TOO...54 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...TIGHT STOPS..FOR A POSIBLE RUN UP IF IT CAN BREAKOUT AT 56..THEN IT COULD MOVE...WATCH IT...51 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER...IT WOULD THEN FILL THE GAP TO 49 AND ANY MOVE LOWER WOULD TAKE IT TO TEST THE RECENT LOWS....47ISH OR SO.....56 IS THE KEY FOR NOW.. QCOM---I WENT LONG AH 7-8 STOCKS THE NITE OF THE YHOO/MOT/MSFT REPORT..QCOM WAS ONE OF THE STOCKS I LIKED....SOLID PROFITS HERE AT THE MOMENT..AND WILL SELL QUICKLY IF WE START TO FALL....I HAD TALKED TO SEVERAL PEOPLE ABOUT THE STOCK..IT BROKE OUT AT 66 BUT WE WERE IN IT MUCH EARLIER...AT 59/60ISH...AS IT REVERSED BACK UP...66 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...68 THE TEST OF TOP...64 1/4 THE SS...GOOD SUPPORT AT 59/60 AGAIN.. SEBL---I BOUGHT THIS SAME EVENING..AND HAVE BEEN POUNDING THE TABLE ON IT FOR THAT EXPECTED MOVE UP TO 50ISH...IT'S HELD SUPPORT AT THE RISING BSL WELL....THE BUY TRIGGER IS 46 1/2..WITH ANOTHER QUICK TEST OF 47 RIGHT THERE..IF IT CAN GET ABOVE 47 THEN 50 IS DOABLE...44 1/4 THE PREFECT SS TRIGGER..AND MY STOP... TQNT---HAD A BEAUTIFUL PULLBACK EARLY IN THE WEEK..WHERE I BOUGHT IT AND CAUGHT THIS LAST NICE RUN BACK UP TO TRY AND TEST THE TOP AT 23...THE BRL LINE IS RIGHT THERE "IF" IT GETS THERE<G> A LOT OF PEOPLE MADE NICE MONEY ON THIS ONE...20 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER.....WITH A TEST AT 23....18 3/4 THE SS...AND MY STOP... CY---ONE OF MY STOCKS LONG...MADE A TRIPLE BOTTOM BY 1 BOX..THEN BEGAN TO REVERSE BACK UP....LOT'S OF PEOPLE WERE SURPRISED AT THIS MOVE...MY LONG SIDE WAS 21 1/2...WITH HEAVY R AT 25....26 IS LIKE WOW!!!!...DON'T GET TOO EUPHORIC..DOUBT WE'LL SEE THAT...<VBG>...24 IS THE BUY TRIGGER... 22 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER AND MY STOP... ELNT---NICE SOLID CHART DEVELOPING...I AM LONG THIS STOCK...31 IS THE BUY TRIGGER, AND IT WOULD PROBABLY HEAD TO THAT 34 AREA FOR A TEST OF TOP...28 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER AND MY STOP....26 IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM...25 IS NOT GOOD... ALTR---GAVE A BEAUTIFUL BREAKOUT BY SIGNAL ON P&F, WE ALL TOOK IT AND ARE DOING FINE SO FAR...SOME PEOPLE ALREADY TOO PROFITS...GREAT..WAY TO TRADE...32 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...34 BLOWS IT AWAY....29 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...28 1/4 IS MY STOP.... MCHP---WHAT A GREAT CHART...BEAUTIFUL BREAKOUT OF HEAVY R AT 34...THE BUY TRIGGER IS 35 RIGHT ABOVE THAT BREAKOUT NUMBER...WAIT FOR IT NOW...32 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER, AND MY STOP... DELL--I AM LONG AND NOT SELLING THIS ONE...I HAVE THE STOCK AND THE JULY/AUG 25'S...STOPS ARE IN PLACE THO...I MAY EXIT ON TUES ALL LONG OPEN POSITIONS..I SAID MAY... CRUS---I OWN THIS STOCK CHEAPLY..BOUGHT THE PULLBACK...AND AM WAITING TO SEE IF IT CAN BREAKOUT AT 28..MY STOP IS THE SS TRIGGER AT 24 3/4....27 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER WITH THAT 28 VERY NICE...CHARTS DEVELOPING VERY NICELY...ABOVE ALL MVAS ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART AND THE BRL LINE ON P&F...MANY PEOPLE HAVE DAYTRADED THIS ONE FOR A NICE PROFIT... RIMM--I AM CURRENTLY LONG THE STOCK AT 29 1/2...STOP AT 28....NO BIGGIE...TOOK THIS ONE ON FRIDAY IN THE ROOM....30 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...WITH 33 A POSSIBILITY...28 MY STOP... KLAC---ON A DCB HERE TRYING FOR 53/54 AREA...THE 20 & 40 OVERHEAD...IF WE GET THER JUST LIKE AMAT WE COULD SHORT IT THERE UNLESS THE SOX BREAKS OUT AT 660..I STILL LIKE THE SEMIS..BUT NOT IF THE INDEXS DO NOT START TO PERFORM RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW!!!...51 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...49 1/2 THE SS... OK THATS ABOUT IT FOR NOW....PLEASE EVERYONE USE STOPS AT ALL TIMES...IF I GET STOPPED OUT AF ALL CURRENT POSITIONS LONG...MY PROFITS WILL BE WONDERFUL TO SAY THE LEAST...AND WITH NO WORRIES, NO SWEAT.... I AM ASKING EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU TO PLEASE BEGIN TO LEARN POINT AND FIGURE CHARTING AS EITHER YOUR PRIMARY SOURCE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS(TA) OR AT THE VERY LEAST A SECONDARY SOURCE SO YOU CAN FOLLOW ALONG WITH ME...IT'S OF THE UTMOST IMPORTANCE AS WE MOVE FORWARD TOGETHER...I PROMISE YOU...YOU WILL "NEVER" REGRET IT..GO TO WWW.DORSEYWRIGHT.COM..AND TAKE THEIR FREE TRIAL..MENTION THAT I SENT YOU...AND HEAD TO THE P&F UNIVERSITY FOR A QUICK LESSON OR TWO ABOUT THE CHARTS AND THE PATTERNS...NUFF SAID AS OF THIS WEEK ON MY SMALL SITE..I AM SETTING UP WITH PAYPAL FOR CONTINUOUS RECURRING BILLING FOR US ALL...THEY HAVE A NEW AND IMPROVED SET UP FOR SITES LIKE MINE...I HATE THE PAPER WORK...AND DO NOT LIKE ALL THE SPREAD SHEET STUFF...SO IF YOU WANT TO CONTINUE EACH MONTH..YOUR NEXT SIGN UP WILL BE STILL YOUR RESPONSIBILTILY BUT I'LL SET UP A LINK ON THE SITE, SO THAT WILL BE YOUR LAST TIME DOING IT...AND OF COURSE IF YOU WANT TO CANCEL...JUST LET THEM AND ME KNOW...ANYTIME YOU WISH...MY SITE IS..WWW.BUYITBUYITSELLITSELLIT.COM.... OK LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE THIS WEEK...ALL THE BEST TO YOU.. WITH WARM REGARDS JERRY....