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To: craig crawford who wrote (128587)	7/19/2001 5:55:15 PM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

the tax refund has been known for a while. lower energy prices should have an immediate effect. housing has been and continues to remain strong. with all these positives clearly apparent to the markets how come stocks aren't coming back? To some extent they already have. For instance the Nasdaq is well off its lows. I think that many people are alarmed by the earnings warnings and want to see earnings recover before they invest more. Some people are worried that the tech sector meltdown reflects more than just economic weakness and may not be over. Others are becoming excessively pessimistic, as is common at bottoms, and are claiming that the economy will never recover and that this is like Japan all over again. what if the economy stages a modest rebound but stocks continue to go nowhere because valuations come down? That's possible, and arguably this has been happening to many old economy stocks for the past few years. As far as tech goes, I think fast growth will always get people excited, but many of the fast growing companies of the 90s will not grow fast in the future ( and some will disappear). I've mostly been talking about the economy, not about stock prices. I think there will be opportunities in tech in future, but I'm very wary of these stocks at present, since this is probably the worst ever downturn in that sector. I'm also aware that some big cap old econ. stocks are probably overvalued. However, if the US economy continues down from here, then pretty much everything, including"hard assets" like commodities and real estate, will be in for big falls. I think its a mistake to be bullish on commodities if you think the economy is in trouble.