Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6021)	7/19/2001 3:15:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, BTW, I forgive you, because you cannot help yourself but believe. You are so very wrong about Al Greensponge and you will see soon enough. <<The USA consumer is 95% employed ... pay ... spend ... groceries, clothes, SUVs, petrol, gasoline ... CDMA phone>> Yes, all true, but this is not the stuff that supports the current stock valuation, much less the past peak valuation. Financial laws can be tempered with, for a while, but are ultimately immutable. <<Debt is not out of control in the USA>> ... Do not know for sure, suspect it is, not waiting to find out for certain, content to watch from far away, until the smoke clears, and screaming stops. <<Debt is well under control in the USA. There are all sorts of debt control.>> ... And yet bankruptcies rise, mortgages go delinquent, and telcos blowup. <<They are not tapped out>> ... Home refinancing traditionally (pre 4th quarter 2000) was accompanied by credit card debt reduction due to debt consolidation, until the 4th quarter, when both grew. For the Q1 2001, home refinancing was accompanied by cash withdraw from home equity, even as credit card debt grew. People are spending their houses now. The trend is not good, unless we have indeed chanced upon the fabled perpetual motion machine. <<They keep on earning, they keep on spending.>> ... and they keep on not saving, until they realize they need to fund their own retirement, and when they do, the third leg of the economy will be kicked out from under the system via consumption collapse, triggering deflation. <<six months ... doomsters learn ... end of the world is NOT nigh>> It is not necessary for the world to end in order to make a mess of things. End of growth, for a while, will do plenty of damage to valuation of all things economic. <<Alan Green$pan ... the great Maestro ... the US$ ... greatest currency in human history ... mid 1980s to the 21st century>> maybe, but where to now? The dollar will be devalued soon enough, and if not, will instead explode later; and if yes, the world will explode instead, taking the US with it. If I am wrong, less than big deal to me, and if I am right, possibly big deal to you. Do you really like such odds? <<It has been a great era ... average middle class working American is ignorant ... smart people ... understand ... stuff ... market models ... predict ... markets ... figure out which companies will flourish ... continue to do extremely well>> No one did well this year based on smarts. The wellness this year was achieved through the taking on of extraordinary risk. Get out now and save yourself. Chugs, Jay morganstanley.com

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6021)	7/19/2001 11:05:20 AM
From: jim black	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Maurice! Maurice! How pretty must things appear from your magnificent island. I must agree with Jay in his reference to debt and funding for retirement in US as being a major problem. This week's issue of Time Mag has some enlightening numbers for you to put a positive spin on, particularly since the ever-optimistic American investor continues to see him/herself in a Panglossian "best of all possible worlds." The average baby boomer spends less than an hour a month planning for retirement. 49% of affluent baby boomers desire retirement at 55 but only 21% expect to be able to do so, based on their current financial status. 72% of boomers want to retire at 60 but only 49% expect to be able. Yet despite these figures the nation continues to have a negative savings rate, refinancing their homes to go more into debt, living beyond their means. Metropolitan Life estimates younger boomers have amassed personal debt equal to 95%! of their incomes. These same boomers have to pay their mortgages, hopefully pay for their childrens' education and ...where in hell or on earth are they going to come up with money to do that, my friend. I continue to be in the camp that contends we are up to our asses in alligators. I love your optimism. I will also love seeing Jurassic Park III at the local cinema tonight Wonderful fantasy. Both, I fear, the film and your optimism. I wish your making it so would make it so, Maurice. And, to boot, the market appears up today. Haven't checked Franco-Nevada this am but note Fidelity made a sizeable further commitment yesterday...in gold...? Go figure...Fidelity buying a gold royalty company. I can't figure why they would do that. best regards from North State. Jim Black