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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44695)	7/19/2001 8:43:53 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

MB: Option pricing was an inviting trap re: SEBL when I checked it 2 days ago. The volatility in SEBL makes for great call-writing for long term holders with low entry prices, but not for new buyers. Diminished prospects (even if only ST or IT) suggest to me that a mark-to-market of SEBL's valuation will have to do it work on the equity price, since it isn't going to be via sales/profits rise. So your caution is very timely. BTWDIK, I bought BEAS near the (please, please) 52 week low yesterday. Not necessarily a better value than SEBL, or less risky, but I like it better technically.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44695)	7/19/2001 12:35:50 PM
From: techreports	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Boys and girls, I have a surprise for you. :) And it may not be a pleasant one. :( Using today's stock price of $37.64 and a report about the conference call (I won't listen to it until this weekend) that management is comfortable with current FY01 and FY02 estimates, Siebel's Fool ratio is an unusually lofty 4.5. If you're not used to running a Fool ratio, simply be aware that management is currently comfortable with estimating 12% average annual growth in earnings over the next 18 months at a time that the stock has dropped to 59 times trailing EPS excluding one-time accounting events. Mike you feel SEBL is overvalued or expensive, but a couple weeks ago i thought you said you were thinking about selling SNDK and putting the rest of your funds into your remaining four stocks. If you're not used to running a Fool ratio, simply be aware that management is currently comfortable with estimating 12% average annual growth in earnings over the next 18 months at a time that the stock has dropped to 59 times trailing EPS excluding one-time accounting events. So the reason the fool ratio is up near 5, b/c growth is expected to be 12%? If the economy turns around in 2002, Siebel could manage to do better than 12% EPS growth..

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44695)	7/19/2001 6:06:27 PM
From: kumar	Respond to of 54805

well Merlin,at $31+change, what does the crystal ball say ? cheers, kumar PS: Happy to hear from u after u listen to the conf call.