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Biotech / Medical : SCIO Scios Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Linda Pearson who wrote (1391)	7/24/2001 5:48:22 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1477

some snippets from a DJNewswire article on SCIO. I don't have a good URL, but if you subscribe to the interactive WSJ, a search on Scios will pull up the article... +++++++++ uly 24, 2001 Dow Jones Newswires IN THE MONEY: Heart Drug Key To Scios' Future By STEVEN D. JONES A Dow Jones Newswires Column VANCOUVER, Wash. -- Natrecor, a new drug developed by California biotechnology company Scios Inc. (SCIO), may soon be the first new drug for congestive heart failure to hit the market in 14 years. ... Natrecor could put Scios among the biotech elite that has taken a product from lab to market. Although Scios has sold other drugs in collaboration with established companies, Natrecor would be the first drug that the 18-year-old Scios has introduced on its own. ... Scios won't set a price for the drug until just before it is introduced, but the company says the price would be in a range of $250 to $450 a day. ... At present, patients receive nitroglycerine to stimulate the heart and a variety of other drugs to purge fluid from the system - a combination that may take up to two hours to deliver relief. But Natrecor "works faster and more effectively than nitroglycerine with fewer side effects," said Hobbs, the Cleveland Clinic cardiologist. He first administered the drug experimentally seven years ago and has participated in clinical trials since then. Hobbs said he expects to use Natrecor for a day or two to stabilize a patient while he adjusts doses of other medicines. For a small number of patients (less than 4% in trials), Natrecor may lower blood pressure, said Hobbs, and so he would not give it to patients with low blood pressure, or patients in shock. So even though more than 5 million Americans are treated for congestive heart failure, only the 1 million who enter the hospital every year are likely candidates for Natrecor. Of those patients, about half, or 500,000 patients, fit Hobbs' profile. If within three years Natrecor captured half of that market (250,000 patients) the drug could generate between $125 million and $225 million in revenue in 2004, depending on the price. Two days of treatment at $250 a day would generate $125 million, or at $450 a day it would generate $225 million. Mark Monane, an analyst at Needham & Co. in New York, expects revenue at the top of that range. Discounting earnings from those future sales to present value suggests Scios' stock could trade up to $35 a share in the next 12 months, he says. Applying the same discounting to sales of $125 million suggests Scios is worth about $20 a share, about where it trades now. ...