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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (80525)7/19/2001 8:17:50 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Mish I think your emphasis on max-pain is too literal,
most open interests are balanced so nobody really takes a
big bath if MSFT closes at 75 instead of 65, for instance.
But driving the price to a nearby strike
point is probably a more demonstrable effect.

Also possible effect is that once the options tension is
released by monday/tuesday of following week the market has
renewed freedom to swing. Usually expiration friday is
anti-climactical to what one might anticipate: a little
push in the morning going to steady flat-line.

Also I haven't looked, but how much does OI represent for
the Qs, relative to their daily trade volume? I look at
sunw, even a 63,000 contract position is 6M shares just 10%
of what friday's volume is likely to be.