FUTURE HYDROGEN REVOLUTION -- trends in energy, cars, electricity
this revolution will rival the Industrial Revolution
but will take up to a decade to truly get momentum
an amalgam of recent reading and research
(a little long, very thought provoking, nice light reading)
California had no worries two years ago on power
NewYork last year had some minor rolling blackouts,
this week the Arizona DiamondBack Major League Baseball Game was interrupted for over 30 minutes
cause: power outage
three weeks ago the SanDiego Padre MLB game was interrupted for 30 min
cause: power outage
the power shortage in Calif will spread quickly to ALL its neighboring states, who will be forced by law to assist
NewYork will be the first state on the east coast to suffer blackouts
they have expensive land, overpopulation, and increasing computer usage
but their main reason is an attempt to control price
their electric generation and distribution regulatory policies are identical to California’s
allow politicians to control price, and you earn darkness
the real key to much of this electrical shortage is computer technology
I read that in 1993 combined computer usage was 1% of US electricity
that is now about 3% currently, unsure exactly
and by 2010 it is expected to hit 15% of US electricity
a average server webfarm uses the same electricity as a 320-story bldg !!!
we have 15,000 new websites appearing each hour
and several million each week
lost revenue from blacked out businesses is not tolerable
I hear of estimated costs of 1-7$M per day
they have already responded with jet microturbine generators
at $30-40k each, they are expensive
but that is a tiny fraction of lost business costs
so companies have already begun to respond, as are individuals
a Mass2shits company just brought down the cost of rooftop solar panels
since 1980, the cost per kwatt has come down 80%
and this Mass company has an inefficient suboptimal rooftop system that generates less electricity, but pays back in 12-18 months
we will see 1000’s of homes with electric meters running backwards
they will be making money off the grid, thanks to a Reagan law
the electrical needs to support one single Personal Digital Assistant is equivalent to a typical refrigerator, amazingly
referring collectively to MSM towers, network switches, servers, etc
the PDA units in operation are rising fast (forget the current hiccup)
by 2015 China will import as much oil as the US does today
that thought scares me for several reasons I wont even pursue
natural gas prices had risen 100% since Jan2k, pulled back recently
I contend that most folk underestimate the electrical trends by a factor of at least 5:1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
do you find it coincidental that nuclear power plants got phased out at the same time that electrical shortages began to happen?
not at all, as I am sure you agree
Vermont Yankee nuke plant in Vermont has shut down
if oil demands grow annually by 2%, we will run out of oil by 2050
if it grows by 4%, we will run out of oil by 2030
the US produces 30% less oil than just one decade ago
watch the Arabs cut back production just as things worsen
they are not our friends
last year the Arabs called our bluff with $35/bbl oil
we have been threatening economic recession to ward them off
no more, since we cannot afford a SINGLE RECESSION
not with the debt structure and international interlock these days
they know about fuel cell generation and the future hydrogen technology
they havent contributed one blessed thing to the world community with their 100's of $B's of wealth
Arabs are toast, and they might deserve a return trip to the Stone Age
their legacy has been oceanside hotels, marble-studded cities in the desert, desalinization plants, jigilo sheiks, goodoleboy networks, business extortion, harems, idle rich, and sponsored world terrorism
Saudi is the only kind heart out there
their desalinization plants have demonstrated world leadership
I once knew a desalz rep in Boston’s Stone & Webster, a ski buddy
but Saudi has a national debt that per capita is 2x worse than Japan
and 10x worse than the US
the Arabs will panic and attempt to control the world again, like 1973
their effort will stiffen the resolve of the entire industrialized world
GOD WANTS US TO TURN TO HYDROGEN
imagine Manhattan smelling like a forest from the Central Park effect
so you are driving across the Mojave Desert?
you can drink your exhaust water from the hydro-powered car !!!
this energy problem will be much much worse than most people think
it will begin to appear when the economy finally recovers next year
the big opps will come from hydrogen displacing gasoline
and the entire network of supporting hydro systems
building fuel cell generators
hydrogen plants along the coastlines
methanol plants in the heartland
fuel cells will run on both
distribution trucks to deliver
storage systems that are safe
gas stations will be called fueling stations, accommodating either
the gas station network is suitable for hybrid function
then full conversion by 2030
I predict by 2004 the US will be in a warlike mode
govt grants between 20-40 $B for product research & devmt
huge price subsidies in the $B’s to get scale in production
tax credits for alternative energy purchases
you may be right that our current response to electrical power plants will satisfy the current demands in certain areas
but only for a couple years
by then the internet, wireless, and computer growth will overtake easily
combined those needs are rising at almost 10% per year, unsure exactly
with 80% of all new electrical generator plants planned to run on methane, look for methane to be a pressure point soon
you will be wrong in one particular sense though
electrical load balancing will create spot shortages in summer middays
when computer and tech usage is greatest, and so is air conditioning
we have NO load balancing features with our delivery systems
also we have the megatrend of population migration to Florida, Texas, California, Arizona, and other southern states, all real hot
air conditioning needs are growing exponentially
we have yet to make too much progress on A/C efficiency
with the influx of people comes their computers, cellphones, handheld devices, PC’s, fazes, copiers, computer systems to support all commerce
then you have the other trend well underway with enclosed buildings
they are air conditioned by necessity, even in springlike weather
strange trend with enclosed buildings, so as to reduce liability
cannot allow people to either jump out of buildings, or toss objects
cheaper to build windows that don’t open
where you are missing the argument is the focal point of shortage
and that is gasoline
the SUV's have exacerbated a problem
in 1998 oil was $8/bbl, now over 3x that
the absurdly stupid US automakers thought they outsmarted the US govt environmental regulations
the SUV was not covered in the laws
they stupidly forgot about the laws of supply and demand
China is kicking in as an oil importer
don’t expect them ever to become too competent as suppliers
they will drain the world's oil supplies
you should read about their economic growth
most American investors think still the US lives on a world island
$2/gal gasoline came to Chicago last summer and this spring
get ready for $3 gasoline by 2003 when the recovery takes hold
the govt makes things worse by requiring certain gasoline formulations in certain months in certain regions
now refineries have a terrible time balancing three gasoline types
remember winter2k when Chicago was $2.20/gal but Florida was $1.70 ?
there was a shortage of reformulated winter gasoline, but not regular
I predict that when the entire US has $2 gasoline, people will cry out
and when gasoline hits $3 in 2003-04, people will be in an uproar
at that time, Prez Bush will escalate his Energy Program
the Dept of Energy will become a very powerful Cabinet Office
it will sponsor $50B in R&D and subsidy programs
people on fixed incomes will be hurt terribly
businesses will have difficulty passing along higher costs
baseline inflation will rise to double its current levels
somehow we tolerate $10 methane but will not $3 gasoline
cheap gasoline has become a perceived Right by Americans
by the way, electricity costs about doubled nationally last year
they rose even more in certain areas
I read that if gasoline rose in cost as much as electricity since 1995,
gasoline would cost $11/gal
THAT IS WHERE WE ARE HEADING ONE DECADE FROM NOW !!!
here is another twist for the equation
in the northwest they plan to release vast amounts of dammed water
they want to generate more electricity in hydro plants
that will create some water shortages
we have entered a new stage where electricity and water are linked
this phenomenon is only true in western states
I am going to be involved in this gargantuan investment opportunity
this huge opp will last for 20 years, now in bottom of the first inning
it will take time to gather speed, but IT WILL NEVER LOOK BACK
wireless and energy will be huge, but energy much more huge
energy market is 100 times larger than the IT market !!!
this Don Ferris and more general Stephen Leeb are very astute
their Energy Report and Personal Finance magazines are prescient
Don Ferris makes excellent points about the parallel between the computer industry 15 years ago, and now with electricity
in 1985 the PC proliferated, as did the computer server, later networks
the computer world became decentralized, shared files became easy
SunMicro, EMC, Oracle, HP, MSFT, Intel, Cisco all big winners
their winning paradigm was distributed processing power
this required smaller powerful computers, and shared files
this brought about networks
emails are secondary in networks
file sharing and website retrievals are primary now
Ferris sees the beginning of distributed electrical production
this parallel is extremely early now, with a few decades to follow
with small fuelcells (home, business, car), with industrial microturbines, with networked power balancing, with essential backup systems, even with rooftop solar panels
a massive response by individual people and individual companies not to be at mercy of stupid politicians and ill-prepared utilities
two years ago, Enron made a splash with new business in traded electricity, which had recently become a traded commodity
this ushered in the electrical distributed network trend
Ferris is DEFINITELY onto a paradigm shift 100 times larger than IT market
IT is information technology, with all its tentacles
here is a final tidbit
precious metals are also in relatively short supply
with catalytic converters, PC's, wireless devices, electrical transmission devices, fuel cells generators, demand for silver and platinum is sure to outstrip supply by a wide margin
Leeb is on top of this metals shortage
we will see future $20 silver, which is now $4 and falling slowly
all the platinum in the world can fit in one single racquet court !!!
Leeb in Personal Finance advised to exit Naz in Feb2k, exit QCOM in March2k
he advised to enter internet sector in 1994
he sold MSFT in July99 expecting legal controversy
he sold CSCO in Feb2k as way overdone
he bought into biotech in 1995
he sold AMZN in Dec99 at top
he bought Duke Energy in 1989
he sounded the entire tech alarm to his PF readers in Dec99
Ferris likes Capstone Microturbines (CPST) and more
the electrical and energy shortages are etched in stone
the world technological progress will not be interrupted
therefore as electrical requirements and demands continue to rise,
we are certain to collide with accelerated depletion of fuels
/ jim |
