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Politics : Impeach George W. Bush -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (5296)	7/20/2001 3:56:32 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93284

If you have their economics? Maybe not. Economics change. Right now the Russians have trouble baking bread. China's economic growth rate is higher and expected to be higher than the US for the forseeable future. What will be the economic condition of Russia 10 years from now? Who the h*** knows? But continued economic weakness is not a societally stable environment. Ripe for war. BUT IT DOESN'T HAVE TO INTERCEPT ALL TO BE USEFUL! Usefull [or effective] is relative. If it's usefull than the adversary will find a different attack mechanism. Then it's not usefull [or effective]. The stupidity of a defensive line that only covered part of their borders was pointed out many times to the French- -to no avail. You hit the nail on the head. Some keep pointing out that BMD is only partial protection, there are many ways around it - but we say it to no avail. They might demand reparations from the US for damage to their country and populace but take on the only remaining superpower? I doubt it. Tough to speculate on future history. What kind of notional odds would you like to put on that number? 40/60, 0.1, 0.01 maybe 1 out of 1,000. Risk a massive retaliation on the part of the Chinese when the odds are 1/100. The stakes aren't $10 at a blackjack table, the stakes are a billion people. pre-emptive conventional attack There is a hidden assumption in that. That assumption is that you know it's coming. History at this point does not give one a warm feeling. Did the US intentionally not preempt the World Trade Center bombing? I know some terrorists have been caught; others have not. There's actually a subtle point in that. I can be highly confident that the intelligence community can detect deployment of an ICBM and not a Chevy Suburban. My preference then is that the rogue nation develop an ICBM rather than use the Chevy Suburban. The deployment of a BMD system encourages the rogue nation use a delivery system that I cannot detect and at a lower cost. Why would I want to encourage them to go to a delivery system that I cannot detect? That's insane. BTW: My "favorite" in the stockpile was the "Davy Crockett"; no longer in the inventory...but that one was insane. jttmab