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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mish5000 who wrote (31490)	7/20/2001 7:43:50 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37746

Ummmmm ..... mish5000, although I've been a believer that we've been in an irrational bubble since 1999, I need to point out one or 2 big flaws in the slides near the end of that set you posted. 1. The magnitude of the DOW and S&P 500 bubble was smaller than the NASDAQ. The bubble was mostly in the NASDAQ. In fact, old economy stocks actually suffered at the expense of new economy stocks. 2. The DOW and S&P 500 have re-adjusted which companies are in their lists MANY times, typically swapping in winners and swapping out losers. So the NASDAQ may return to 1000, but the S&P 500 is not going back to 100, lol. I would guess that unless things really get bad, a good target for the S&P 500, based on extrapolating a trendline from 1991 - 1995, is about 900 - 1000. quote.yahoo.com^SPC&d=c&t=my&l=on&z=b&q=l Regards, Chris

To: mish5000 who wrote (31490)	7/20/2001 9:42:24 AM
From: Frederick Langford	Respond to of 37746

07:55 ET PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 31.31: Bear Stearns downgrades to NEUTRAL from Attractive after company met lowered estimates but shippable backlog shrank to $62 mln from $94 mln and weak turns biz suggests Q3 rev. in the $62-$65 mln range (-30% qtr/qtr); PMCS estimates that customers hold about 2 qtrs of inventory in components, WIP, and finished goods; makes any type of significant recovery during the next 2 qtrs unlikely, sees stock as dead money at best at current prices Short ALL rallies in PMCS Fred

To: mish5000 who wrote (31490)	7/20/2001 9:45:13 AM
From: besttrader	Respond to of 37746

That's right. THE END of these markets is destined.

To: mish5000 who wrote (31490)	7/20/2001 5:58:31 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 37746

While I agree that the markets are still overvalued, I think Prudent Bear has a vested interest in making a scary picture look scarier. The scale for Slide 8 should have been logarithmic. After all a 1000 point rise from Dow 10,000 to 11,000 is not the same as a 1000 point rise from 1,000 to 2,000. The former is a rise of 10% while the latter is a rise of 100%. That said, I think the Dow could decline to 7500-8000 and the S&P to 750-800 before all this is over. The Naz could bottom around 1200 -- if we are lucky. If we are not lucky... well, let's not talk about it, OK?!