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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (12279)	7/20/2001 11:12:24 AM
From: martin001	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

INtellectually its hard to ignore fundamentals However I have learned the hard way that whenever I think too much I get hurt by the market. <g> A mechanical TA approach prevents my thinking too often. As a side note - it seems that the retail investor/trader is armed with much more knowledge (TA wise) than ever before. And many more such investors than ever as well. That to me, explains this discrepancy between valuation and the business cycle - alot of people have made arguments about the SOX - that cyclically it is in a trough yet the valuations are nowhere near bottom. But if most people are trading based on technicals rather than fundamentals then it seems likely that we will not revisit those lower (historically) valuations. And not just in the SOX but in all sectors. Many people will claim that those who forget the mistakes/lessons of history are doomed to repeat them and in this context, therefore, valuations will (in time) return to lows to coincide with a cyclical low. However history also shows that there are moments when the internal dynamics change completely and those events must be factored in appropriately.There are many instances in history where widely held beliefs were held onto in ignorance of "fundamental" changes that were occurring right under their noses. Just ranting as the market does its thing. M