ok...you guys wanted to know about "19".....well here ya go....remember ya asked for it:
he Cycle of Time II
By Eric Hadik
Probably the most overlooked yet most prevalent—cycle today is what I have termed “The Cycle of Time”.
In April 1992, the original article ”A Cycle of Time” in Trader's World focused on this cycle's predominance in the Bond market. The cycle combined with other pertinent analysis was utilized to predict a powerful rally in the Bonds over the ensuing 6-12 months...with initial targets at 106-18—107-10 and 110-10—110-23.
Bonds were currently trading in the 96's and this prediction seemed highly unlikely to most readers...but history served as a powerful vindicator. Within 8 months, Bonds reached 111-28, in route to 122-06.
To quote from that article, “...All of these cycles enhance, and rarely contradict, the most consistent cycle in the bonds: The Cycle of 19...It is this cycle—The Cycle of 19—which has been the most intriguing over the last several years in the Treasury Bond Futures.” But, the Bond market is not the only place that this cycle is so ubiquitous...
It is prevalent in the Stock Indexes, Deutschemark, Yen, Gold, and Crude Oil...particularly on the monthly and weekly charts. Before delving into these markets—and what “The Cycle of Time” may be projecting—let's examine some significant aspects of this cycle...
The basis—or foundation—for this cycle comes from Biblical mathematics. Within the Bible, two specific numbers represent “completion”. Most people easily recognize the first—it is the number 7. This number represents “completion” from an earthly/human standpoint. Everything from the days of creation (and the days of our week) to its numerous applications in prophecy reinforce the importance of the number 7.
The second number of completion is not as easily recognized—it is the number 12. Throughout the Bible, the number 12 represents completion from a heavenly/celestial standpoint. From the 12 sons of Israel to the 12 Disciples of Christ (which represent the Old and New Testament leaders—and heavenly elders), Biblical mathematics confirm 12 as the number of heavenly completion. (The 12 months of the year—based on heavenly bodies—and the 12 divisions of the stars/constellations also testify to this principle.) These two numbers join to represent complete completion.
The combination of these two numbers reveals another critical number—the number 19. The name I have chosen for this cycle—the “Cycle of Time” is due to its many applications in time, as we observe it.
The number 19's application to time—and geometry— supports the theory that this is a crucial cycle. To begin with, the square root of 360 (rounded off) is 19. 19 squared is 361. This is consistent with Gann/geometric theory and Hamilton Bolton's squared number theory.
This means that the square root of a circle's degrees—or a year's days—rounds off to 19. Therefore, 19-19 day cycles is essentially a year. Also 19-19 week cycles is 7 years—a key Biblical and natural cycle. 19 months is 81 weeks (the 2nd multiple of the “Lost Cycle”). 19 years is also a complete Lunar cycle. So, the number 19 plays an integral part in various natural time cycles.
With the Golden Ratio applied, 19 weeks = .382 of a year and 19 months = 1.618 years. These numbers (7, 12 +19) are linked by the Golden Ratio (.618/1.618) and form a unique summation series which applies directly to time. Other relationships to time contribute to this same summation series. To quote from the 1992 article:
There are 7 months in the year with 31 days...and 5 without... .618 (rounded to nearest whole) of the months of the year have 31 days...618 of 31 = 19. Therefore, a month proportioned by the Golden Section = 12 days and 19 days. A year proportioned likewise = 5 months and 7 months...
By combining three principles, expounded on in previous articles, the congruence of these numbers becomes apparent. These principles are Summation Series/Biblical Cycles/Golden Ratio (trinities often work out so well!).”
The article went on to lay out the following summation series (a series where each subsequent number is the sum of the two preceding it...all summation series ultimately introduce the Golden Ratio between subsequent components as the series progresses)...
(5), 7, 12, 19, 31, 50, 81, 131, 212, 343, 555, 898...
This may be the most unique summation series in existence. In addition to applying so closely to time and measurements, it also comprises the original Fibonacci Summation Series several times...as I will soon demonstrate. But, first, it is important to examine the series for its primary significance, with respect to time.
To begin with, there are 7 days in a week, we utilize a 12-hour clock and there are 2-12 hour divisions in a day (just like the 2-12 man divisions in the Old and New Testament forming the 24 elders in heaven), and 12 months in a year. There are 7 months with 31 days (as previously mentioned)...and 5 without. And—in Jewish law—there are 50 years in a Jubilee.
Parts of this series apply to other forms of measuring...32 (1 point error) and 212 degrees are the Fahrenheit extremes of water—freezing and boiling; there are 12 inches in a foot, 12 in a dozen, and 12 dozen in a gross.
Some interesting aspects of this series are as follows...
#1—If each number in the series is applied to days (i.e. 7 days, 12 days, 19 days), then the coinciding weeks (rounded off) begin the series again...50 days = 7 weeks, 81 days = 12 weeks, 131 days = 19 weeks. Another way of stating this is that by dividing each number in the series by the base of the series (7), it self-perpetuates. In addition to beginning with 7, this series closely relates to exponential multiples of 7... 7 = 7 x 1, 50 = 7 x 7 (with 1 point error), and 343 = 7 x 7 x 7. If you consider the Biblical/Jewish principle of a Jubilee year, 50 also fits perfectly...and is an additional example of a time period within this series.
#2—This is where the Fibonacci Summation Series begins to fit in...Look closely at the series again... 7, 12, 19, 31, 50, 81, 131, 212, 343, 555, 898. It is the original Fibonacci Summation Series (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89...) contained within the “Cycle of Time” series.
Now, look again at the numerals not originally highlighted (starting with 50 and carried further)... 50, 81, 131, 212, 343, 555, 898, 1453, 2351, 3804. The Fibonacci Summation Series again unfolds—initially as the last numeral and then as the outer numerals. So, hidden within the “Cycle of Time” Summation Series is the Fibonacci Summation Series in several areas. No other series holds this many coinciding principles or mathematical significance. And no other cycle holds so many revelations for the next decade.
The “Cycle of Time” also has application to 1995...
In mathematics, it is important to know the factors of a number to recognize its full significance. Multiples of 7, 9, 12, 40, etc. should have equal—or greater—significance than the original factors which combining to form that number. For example, 1995 is evenly divisible by 19.
In fact, 1995 divided by 19 = 105 (or 7 x 15 or 5 x 21). Although it is admittedly a “stretch”, this may be one reason why the 19th of so many months has had cyclical relevance...a pattern which is expected to repeat again in October, and possibly in September—as a precursor. If the cycle of 19 is truly a Biblical (related) cycle, it follows suit that it should have a continual impact on Israel—the original recipient of God's laws and principles (and consequently—His cycles). Additionally, since a lunar cycle is 19 years—and the entire Jewish calendar is based on lunar activity—19 years should be particularly important to Israel. Each month and every festival in the Jewish calendar are based on the New Moon.
The last century has proven that the “Cycle of Time” certainly has had—and is likely to have—a profound impact on the Jewish nation. (To be consistent, it should be remembered that each Jewish year begins in the September/October period of our year and ends at the same time the following year. Thus, a period which spanned from 1900 to 1920 could still be a 19 year period depending on the months of the events in question (i.e. November 1900—March 1920 would only be 19 Jewish years, instead of 20)).
Since precise dates for ancient history are not as reliable—and since Israel's recent history has been most predominant in the last 100 years—the last century will be the only period examined in this discussion...
1896-1898 marked the early stages of the revitalization of Zionism, the publication of “The Jewish State” (Der Judenstat) and the First Zionist Congress in Basel, Switzerland.
In 1917—19 years later—in the latter stages of World War I—General Edmund Allenby marched into Jerusalem, freeing the city from the Turks (400 years after the original occupation).
In 1948—31 years after the freedom of Jerusalem in 1917 (31 = 1.618 x 19) and 50 years from 1898 (50 = 2.618 x 19 and the Year of Jubilee)—Israel declared her independence and again became a nation.
In 1967—19 years from the declaration of independence in Israel in 1948 and 50 years from the freedom of Jerusalem in 1917—Israel fought a major war (though it lasted only a Biblical 6 days—or 12-12 hour periods) and saw its territory expanded for the first time.
In 1979—12 years after the Six Days War (12 = .618 x 19) in 1967, 31 years after the establishment of Israel as a nation in 1948, 57 years (3 x 19) from 1922—when the British gained administration over Palestine, granted by The League of Nations...(Britain's mandate continued until 1948) and 81 years from 1898 (81 = 4.236 x 19)—three events occurred which did—and will continue to shape—the future of Israel into the early part of the next century...
In Biblical mathematics—and in modern day lore—major events—sometimes with negative connotations—occur in three's. A recent example occurred on April 19th—a day predicted to be a major turning point in the markets by The Weekly Re-Lay. Three markets—the Deutschemark, Yen and Gold each set major tops on that day while three explosions rocked the world...Oklahoma City, the Japanese subway gas bombs and a car bomb/assassination attempt in Spain. This occurred three days after Easter and only days after a lunar eclipse. Biblical examples of the number three are numerous.
The three important events in 1979 were... #1—The signing of the Camp David peace accord between Israel and Egypt in 1979. #2—The rise to power of Saddam Hussein in Iraq (Babylon)...and... #3—The culmination of the overthrow of a pro-Western Iranian (Persian) government (the Shah) and the American hostage taking.
Though it may not be immediately apparent, these three events will affect Israel over the next 10 years. This is particularly true following the recent Iran/Iraq pact of non aggression and the numerous Russian (Jog)/Iranian agreements being forged against the will of the Clinton Administration.
The Administration's surprise sanctions against Iran—also in April of this year (??)—further solidified the anti-Western sentiment which has pushed Iran and Iraq into a “common-enemy” friendship targeted against Israel and the U.S. This was just one of many events uniting the Arab (and Persian) world and serving as a precursor to the next 3 years. But this is not where it ends...
1991 witnessed another event leading to this uniting of “strange bedfellows”...Iran and Iraq...
In 1991—12 years from the 1979 trio of events, 19 years from the devastating 1972 Olympics—where Israeli athletes were murdered and 50 years from the start of US involvement in W.W.II—which led to Israel's freedom 7 years later—the American-led coalition attacked Iraq in retaliation for its invasion of Kuwait. Iraq immediately used this event as an excuse to bomb Israel in the hopes of uniting the Arab world...but Saddam Hussein's timing was off—he was 7 years early.
The 39 days of bombing (which fell 1 day short of the Biblical 40 days—failing to complete the job) heightened the “bully” image of the US in Arab eyes. It allowed for the transfer of high-tech weaponry to countries like Saudi Arabia, previously denied access due to their threat to Israel. This threat still exists and will increase when the monarchy is overthrown in Saudi Arabia. Egypt is also at risk—and under continual attack—from Muslim extremists. All these events point to two future dates which should have a dramatic impact on Israel, the Middle East and the world via escalating oil prices, etc.
1998 is 7 years from the Persian Gulf War in 1991 (.382 x 19), 19 years from the trio of events in 1979, 31 years from the Six Days War in 1967, 50 years (and a type of Jubilee*) from the Israeli independence in 1948, 57 years (3 x 19) from the start of W.W.II, 76 years (4 x 19) from the British mandate over Palestine in 1922, 81 years from the freedom of Jerusalem in 1917 and 100 years (2 Jubilees) from 1898. All of these cycles are related to the “Cycle of Time” by the Golden Ratio (1.618)...and the “Cycle of Time” Summation Series (“COTSS”).
When validating cycles—like the “Cycle of 19”—it is always important to monitor the midpoint for confirming events. In 1988—9 1/2 years from the earliest 1979 event, Iran and Iraq declared a cease-fire in their multi-year conflict. This was one-half of a 19 year lunar cycle and projected another uniting event 9 1/2 years in the future—1998.
(Of additional cyclic interest is that the freeing of Jerusalem in 1917 occurred on the 400th anniversary of the Turks siege of Jerusalem in 1517. 80 Jewish years later—in late-1997/1998—Israel should witness more dramatic events. This would be 12 times the Biblical cycle of 40 years from the original occupation.)
Further reinforcing this date (late-1997—1998, which encompasses one specific Jewish year) is the recent commencement of celebrations commemorating the 3000th anniversary of King David's reign—an event with enormous prophetic implications. These celebrations have just begun and are scheduled to last for 17 months (inciting Arab neighbors). However, the closest multiple of “The Cycle of Time” is 3002 years—which is 158 x 19. The 3002nd anniversary would fall precisely at the beginning of the 1997-1998 Jewish year. The second date of significance is...2005. 2005 is 7 years from 1998, 31 years from the Arab oil embargo and the Yom Kippur War in 1973-74, 38 years (2 x 19) from the Six Days War in 1967, and 57 years (3 x 19) from Israeli independence in 1948. 2005 is also 513 years (27 x 19 or 3 x 3 x 3 x 19 and may be the true “civilization cycle” as opposed to 510 years) from the founding of the “New World”...perhaps a true “New World Order” will arise.
Since America is so closely allied to Israel...and the majority of the Arab world hold both in great contempt—it follows that to some degree “as goes Israel—so goes America”. By this I mean that any attack/embargo/terrorism aimed at Israel could also be aimed at the U.S....OR...will spur a reaction by America, drawing her into the fray.
This could be viewed from a human perspective as a dangerous alliance or from a Biblical perspective as a blessed one... “And I will make of thee a great nation, and I will bless thee,...and thou shalt be a blessing. And I will bless them that bless thee and curse them that curseth thee: and in thee shall all the families of the earth be blessed.” Genesis 12:2+3
One market perspective involves the effect that a Middle-East war would have on energy, currency and precious metals prices. Since I have long speculated that 1995 will act as a precursor to 1998, the next three years should see progressively deteriorating conditions in the Middle East...and escalating energy/precious metals prices.
1998 + 2005—like 1945 (and 1917 and 1991)—could mark the worst and the best that this period has to offer. In 1945, W.W.II was at its worst and the atom bombs were dropped...but...the declaration of surrender and peace was also signed. 1998 could represent the peak of tensions—and a subsequent reprieve from those tensions—pointing ahead to 2005.
The Cycle of Time”—points to 1998 as a major convergence of cycles related to Israel and the Middle East. The remaining implications—to the markets, investments and political structure—will be reserved for future discussions.
One additional thought-provoking point...Considering the importance of threes and the significance of factors which make up a number, 1998 is an interesting year...and an interesting number. Think about it!
The “Cycle of Time” has also had an interesting impact on American politics and foreign policy—reinforcing the theory that “as goes Israel—so goes America” (to a certain degree). One needs only to start counting from the official beginning of the USA to see its impact...
1789—Ratification of the US Constitution and first President taking office. 1865—Civil War (76 years—or 4 x 19 years later).
1941—W.W.I entry (76/152 years later).
1979—Iranian hostage taking/ascension to power of Saddam Hussein/US brokered peace accord between Israel and Egypt—providing additional fuel to the fire (and deterioration of relations between Middle East and America...38/114 and 190 years later). 1998—??? (19/57/133 and 209 years later).
The “Cycle of Time” has had a similar impact on world events and the focus and concentration of power over the last 500 years...
1492—Discovery of the “New World”.
1607—First settlement in America—Jamestown, VA (115—or 6 x 19 years—*1 year error—after discovery of “New World”)
1777—Revolutionary War—the re-focus of attention from Europe to America (285—or 15 x 19 years after discovery of “New World” and 170—or 9 x 19 years* after first settlement)
1929—World financial peak/greatest financial collapse in modern history and death of the constitutional republic in America...transfer to “New Deal” socialism—soon after (437-or 23 x 19/323—or 17 x 19*/152—or 8 x 19 years later)
1948—Establishment of Israel and re-focus of attention to the Middle East (456—24 x 19/342—or 18 x 19/171—or 9 x 19/and 19 years later)
1967—Six Days War—intensifying focus on Middle East and laying the groundwork for the next 28 years of conflict over landscape of Middle East (475—or 25 x 19/361—or 19 x 19**/190—or 10 x 19/38—or 2 x 19 and 19 years later)
**This event—and the first Jewish settlements—the crux of Israel's conflict—occurred 360 years—or 1 complete cycle/circle from the first settlement in America. In one full circle of time, world focus on two significant settlements has gone one half-circle around the globe.
2005—??? (“New World Order” //financial collapse)
(513—or 27 x 19/399—or 21 x 19/228—or 12 x 19/76—or 4 x 19/57—or 3 x 19 and 38—or 2 x 19 years after... “New World”, new settlement, new country, financial collapse, another “new” country, more new settlements...)
The “Cycle of Time” has also had a strong impact on the financial markets...
The S+P has seen several 19 month events (waves or cycles) over the last decade. For example... 6/84 Low—8/87 High = 38 months; 8/87 High—10/90 Low = 38 months; 6/84 Low—10/90 Low = 76 months; 10/90 Low—5/92 High Close = 19 months; 6/92 High—1/94 High = 19 months; 10/90 Low—1/94 High = 39 months
It may continue to have an effect if July—September 1995 experiences a reversal lower and November/ December 1995 sees the first significant low in the overall stock market...
6/84 Low + 133* months = 7/95; 10/90 Low + 57 months = 7/95; 10/87 Low + 95 months = 9/95; 1/94 High + 19 months = 8/95. *133 months is 7 x 19—and therefore another sign of completion. For this to be accurate, the stock indexes would have to maintain the highest monthly close in July and the highest intra-month spike in September.
For this to occur, the market should set a high around September 15th/18th.
A high on September 15th/18th would also culminate a 76 week (4 x 19) advance from the April 1994 low and low weekly close. It would also be 171 weeks (9 x 19) from the June 1992 highs and 153 weeks (1 week error of 8 x 19) from the October 1992 lows. It would also be the 1 year anniversary of the initial rally highs in the DJIA last year.
In the event a decline begins in late-September, the first monthly time frame to watch for a low would be late November/early December.
10/92 Low + 38 months = 12/95
4/94 Low + 19 months = 11/95
Assuming that September 15/18th is the high—or high close—a 12 week decline would terminate between December 4th and December 15th. 12 weeks—in addition to being .618 x 19—is also the duration of the most recent decline (9/94—12/94) and the last substantial decline (7/90—10/90).
Intervening declines have lasted 7 weeks (10/91—12/91), 19 weeks (5/92—10/92) and 9 weeks (9 1/2 weeks—to be precise—from January 31, 1994—April 4, 1994). Each of these declines directly relates to the “Cycle of Time”. December 9th is also an anniversary low...from 1994. The “Cycle of Time” also relates to other financial markets and is aligning in May/June 1996 in Bonds which represents 31 months from the 10/93 high, 19 months from the 11/94 lows, 133 weeks from the 10/93 highs, 76 weeks from the 11/94 lows and 38 weeks from the 8/95 lows.
This cycle holds many other conclusions for the remaining financial markets which will be examined in the third installment of “The Cycle of Time”. Cycle of Time II—9/15/95
Cycle of Time II—Update 1/10/96 Since “The Cycle of Time II” was completed, numerous events have validated its existence and application. First, were major tops set in two of the most appropriate indices. Both the NASDAQ—which had fueled the entire advance until mid-September—and the Mutual Fund Index (Investor's Business Daily)—which is the best representative of this euphoria—topped out in mid-September and have since consolidated. Another series of extraordinary events took place in The Middle East soon after this report was published. First was the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Then came terrorist attacks on US forces in Saudi Arabia and soon after, a foiled attempt on the life of Egypt's prime minister—Hosni Mubarak. In the same 2-3 month period, King Fahd of Saudi Arabia suffered a stroke and turned over much of his power to his half-brother. If this isn't enough to validate The Cycle of Time, wait till you see what happens next!
For those who still want additional proof, watch the month of February 1996. In the beginning of February, numerous cycles align and project a major turn in the Dollar (most likely a top). Soon after, Bond and Stock Index cycles portend a sharp correction into Feb. 15/16th...and Precious Metals are poised to continue rallying into early March (4th-8th). (My cycles projected a major low in Gold for the week of Nov. 20-24th, which I conveyed to my readers and highlighted in advertisements in Investors Business Daily. Nov. 22 marked the exact low in Gold—which continues to rally.)
Eric S. Hadik is President of Generic Trading Corp.—a registered CTA, PO Box 2252, Naperville, IL 60567. 708-527-0459. Mr. Hadik produces The Weekly Re-Lay—a weekly fax service and INSIDE Track—a monthly newsletter. |
