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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul A who wrote (21094)	7/20/2001 9:50:32 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 30051

Jay- its funny because you and I and alot of other shorts are all in the same boat Paul, I agree with everything in your post. We will be lucky if we are all in the positions we want to be in when the market really pukes. everytime we start building momentum one way or the other it just surprises me and reverses I have had a great month zagging the zig. I've waited until the momentum really started going up before I entered. The nice thing about being a bear in this environment is that I know with a fair amount of certainty that I am not going to get killed. I may get in too early, but the stocks I am shorting aren't going to keep running. The fundies are just too bad. I usually just short more if they run against me. I know that at some point the fundamentals will be awful and the stocks will keep going up, but it won't happen when the valuations are as high as they are now. Im tired of being a perma bear.. I really am.. but from an FA point of view, I just dont believe the market has fuly priced in where we stand today I agree completely. Great post. Jay

To: Paul A who wrote (21094)	7/20/2001 10:13:55 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30051

Paul, that's one of the most difficult things about shorting - having the discipline to ride out your position if the F/A and T/A support what you're doing. Actually, shorting in a channel is probably easier than shorting over a longer term. Working inside a box gives you a clearer picture of your near term range limits, and it also helps set stop losses. It's much easier, IMO, shorting in a channel than trying to ride MSFT to a 50% Fib re-trace of the run from 40.25 to the recent high. Welcome aboard!