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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (80639)	7/21/2001 5:58:12 AM
From: ig	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Rally In addition to the p/c volume ratio you mention, there are additional reasons to expect a rally: 1. Descending wedge: dtraders.com (Reflects compx and ndx, but I just happened to have this QQQ chart ready.) 2. Overnight last night, the bears were orgiastic (see the CFZ thread). MSFT bad news was supposed to send the Dow and Naz straight to Hell. Came the dawn, the bears trudged back to their caves, muttering bleak nothings to themselves all the way. 3. Not only did MSFT fail to tank the market, it couldn't even push the market below the July 11 low -- so compx shows a nice higher low on (especially on 60min chart), finishing up nicely off the lows of the day. So big deal, MSFT projects lower revs this quarter. No Kidding! Everyone knows WinXP isn't going to set the world on fire. Who expected anything different? We who time the effects of the Fed rate cuts knew Q2 earnings were going to be poor. We also know that those who are disappointed the economy hasn't turned around by now are simply premature. The current negative reports are exactly what the "Don't Fight The Fed" crowd are expecting. Anyone who is surprised or disenchanted by these negative corporate earnings reports just doesn't get it. Upside earnings surprises are expected to begin in Q3. Anyone who understands this also understands why MSFT didn't trigger the China Syndrome today. I got long QQQ August 43 calls 10 minutes before the close today. Near-term target is 44+. ig www.dtraders.com

To: Mike M who wrote (80639)	7/21/2001 11:51:32 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99985

Mike I am flat. I just did not want to hold over the weekend. Please give us a bounce! Unlike bulls on this thread I am sure we are not headed to the moon from here. All rallies are suspect until capitulation. Would love to see 2078 again. Closed my short of PMCS, made an average of 200% on GENZ puts, covering 1/2 of the remaining 1/3 for about a 180% profit. GENZ had record earnings, imagine if there was any hint at weakness. PMCS had a huge number of strike 30 calls and almost no puts. I wish I was greedier on my short (but everytime in the past I so so convinced to the point of being greedy I got hammered). Max pain suggested PMCS would not close above 30 so I took a chance. Had I been thinking clear, I should have bought some strike 30 puts when the rally continued to 33 after I shorted at 31. Strike 30's would probably have been less than 50 cents and would have been worth as much as $3 during the day. Max pain does not always work but this month it worked nearly to a tee. Some boards were recommending a short of NETA headed into earnings but huge numbers of puts kept me away. NETA rallied 30% or so from recommendation. Close to expiry I am very nervous if I am on the opposite side of pain. M

To: Mike M who wrote (80639)	7/22/2001 7:38:05 AM
From: Rick Storm	Respond to of 99985

mike , do you think the heavy put and call amount on friday is meaningful in the face of options expiration; on the prior friday, it looks like @10 mill options were traded on the 13th ;for equities the amounts were 537 call and 315 put ON fri 20 total was 17milloptions and equity 867call and 670 put? Is this a true equity put call rise or covering/hedging related to options expiration-- the questions was asked before when options expire--its i think on sat, but contracts must be settled by fri at 530 pm east coast time--does anyone know? thnkx