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Strategies & Market Trends : Coming Financial Collapse Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (521)	7/21/2001 2:25:19 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 974

levyforecast.org CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER Mount Kisco, NY, July 20, 2001-There has been some improvement in the inventory-sales balance and some modest easing of pressure on manufacturers, but the economy’s problems are increasing, according to the Levy Institute Forecasting Center. This recession is a lot more than an inventory cycle and the longer term problems will not vanish even if a temporary inventory stabilization is achieved. The latest issue of The Levy Institute Forecast reveals: · "Rapid Federal Reserve action in the first half of 2001...indirectly limited the deterioration of nonfinancial activity. Nevertheless, the overall situation has continued to worsen." · "Thanks to a powerful surge in mortgage refinancing...the personal saving rate remained virtually flat." However, "refinancing activity is now waning" and "all influences are now pushing for a higher saving rate in the second half." · "...With refinancing activity now falling rapidly, the other, universally unfavorable influences on consumers will in all probability bring about a rising saving rate, seriously hindering businesses’ efforts to get inventories back in line." · "Even if inventory liquidation slows temporarily, a multitude of greater economic and financial problems loom." The long-term problems of "severe overcapacity and record debt ratios encumber nonfinancial industries. ...They will increasingly manifest themselves in tightening credit conditions, declining investment in equipment and construction, rising personal saving, plummeting exports, and pockets of deflation." · The international situation continues to deteriorate. "Economy after economy is falling into recession. A sign of deflationary global situation: the Knight-Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau futures index for industrial materials fell to a quarter-century low last month." · "In recent years, faith in the power of the Federal Reserve to lift the stock market by cutting interest rates became a pillar of the bull market. ...The inability of the stock market to begin a sustained rally after a full six months of dramatic cuts in interest rates raises the question, "Is something different this time?"" David A. Levy, director of the Levy Institute Forecasting Center, explains, "The Fed will need to continue battling the storms and to get a sizable assist from tax rebates and cuts if it is to reestablish growth and stability in 2002. If it succeeds, the price will be an even greater debt bubble." ### In this month's Levy Institute Forecast... The Levy Institute Forecast, formerly known as the Industry Forecast, was established in 1949 by Jerome Levy and S Jay Levy and has been published since January 1, 1991 by The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. The Levy Institute Forecast is produced 12 times per year by David A. Levy, S Jay Levy, and the research staff of the Levy Institute Forecasting Center. The Levy Institute Forecasting Center 69 South Moger Avenue, Suite 202 Mount Kisco, New York 10549 Research: 914-666-0641 Information: 1-888-244-8617 (toll free) KJC