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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (3256)	7/21/2001 8:34:58 AM
From: semi2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

with 1.2B is cash I don't see this move for buy of SFAM. May be for some other reason, or bad times ahead - to keep ahead of competition (just like thoese who did secondary were smart folks, and nvls doesn't see turnaround any time soon) just my opinion

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (3256)	7/21/2001 8:49:21 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

Hi Steve, Well ,they bought Gasonics-but that was a stock swap. Let's do a little scratching on the bar napkin. 800,000,000 divided by the stock price(with a touch of premium(50.00)=1,600,000 new shares.I don't know what the specifics of the 144a are so this is just guessing.Nvls has 142,452,498 shares outstanding so this dilution would only be about 1.12 % not a big deal. So who are the possible targets ? Sfam - 30,116,409 shares outstanding.All they've done in the last 3 years is bleed red ink and it is flowing BIG TIME this year <$2.89> in three quarters.Price of the stock has bottomed at 3 with 6 being the high of the last decent rally this year. Ten bucks would be a gift to stockholders.This purchase would be bottom feeding and a value play.Might be very shrewd.BWDIK This transaction would only take up less than half the money being issued and that would be paying a huge premum.It looks to me like the offering is too big for this transaction even if they paid all cash(and it seems they like to use their stock - the price of the stock has done relatively well of late - so at a bottom where value is to be had - they can do well with stock here) Keep in mind their preference is to pay with stock -as their track record with Gasonics (In January) suggests. Let's look at Lam Research: 123,623,978 shares outstanding @ say a nice premium of 40= 4.9 billion. Here 800 million looks small.So if they did a stock swap of equals the 800 million cash might be what they need to reorganize. Novellus itself has 142,452,498 shares outstanding. I guess it is time to harness the wealth of SI. Did anyone out there own KLA or Tencor stock back when they merged.As I recall it was at the bottom of a cycle and resulted in very favorable acceptance. Rather than fight on price they joined and became an industry leader. With Amat being the 800 pound Gorilla here - a combination of Lam and Novellus makes a lot of sense. One sign i've been looking for in this cycle is a consolidation or merger activity.This 144A is adding a lot of excitement and may be the beginnings of our favorite stock moving up into the BIG BOYS LEAGUE ????? I for one would like to see 800 million in the bank and a merger of equals with LRCX. Nvls being a tad bigger and take in Lam into the fold as the combination yields a more diverse competitor to Amat. An analysis of the stocks shows an incredible linkage already. Nvls and lrcx have been in a lock step for months and sfam has plummeted into the bargain basement. :http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?s=LRCX+nvls It all adds up to a good mystery and the world heard about it here first. Great sleuthing going on out there - shows the value of SI. BWDIK Bob P.S. my vote goes for Lam