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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (80649)	7/21/2001 1:53:09 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 99985

A week ago I would have been your staunchest supporter, whatever THAT means. But watching Mr. Market at work makes me wonder if it isn't true that the stealth market is happening out of sight (duh, that is what a stealth market IS) and it won't be long before it gets in full bloom. When things don't go the way I expect them to (formerly, down big-time was my call), I suspect myself and not the markets... BWDIK?

To: mishedlo who wrote (80649)	7/21/2001 2:02:06 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Mish and IG: The renewed prevalence of bearish sentiment (add the wknd. stock-talk shows to the message boards) and the general accustomization to a frustrating/ narrow range/downward-biased market opens my mind at least to the possibility of a strong rally - gathering energy on the rupture of the upper wedge boundary line, which corresponds approximately to a number of other longer-term down-trendlines, and maybe even approaching the 200 DMA. Still, you could both be right, especially if the falling wedge pattern follows the course of many f.w.'s and breaks out from a much lower level than current ones, perhaps after the also not-uncommon false breakdown, and at a point much later in the pattern's development (they can even reach the apex - put it at October or later near the April lows - without being negated). For this reason it's often advisable to await the breakout on falling wedges. In such an instance, both the widely observed bearish h&s (or "continuation h&s" or just the rally breakdown) AND the also widely observed bullish falling wedge pattern could be fulfilled. Could even make for a nice double bottom on the the tech indices. Would sure sew things up nicely for chartists. Fib levels on the whole rally from the lows tell several interesting stories, but producing them here would be laborious. As far as the stocks Mish mentions goes, though, here are approximate figures, using Friday's closes: CREE: 50% retracement of post-April rally. VRSN: ca. 62% VRTS: 100% + (i.e., below April low) SEBL: ca. 70% CSCO: ca. 55% JNPR: 100% + CIEN: 100% + Not sure they tell you much, other than it's a fairly bleak picture - may be due to brighten, may get a lot bleaker... who's to say?