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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (113827)	7/23/2001 5:47:55 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Jim, i agree the positioning measures are more important than the polls, especially in short term trading. but the Rydex ratio can go nearly TEN TIMES higher in a panic, as was seen in '98 (the ratio between bear funds and bull+sector funds). besides, in the futures markets, small speculators continue to pile into huge net long positions...so at least that part of the positioning measures is clearly bearish, with a LOT more money at stake than in the Rydex funds. as to the polls, AAII is notoriously volatile and generally more indicative of short term sentiment...II's poll however is a slow moving poll, and a very reliable indicator for medium to long term market moves. to see those guys get more and more bullish while the market keeps grinding lower is very disturbing. as i've mentioned on another occasion, this is the exact opposite to the situation in '94, shortly before the market took off, going vertical. back then, the speculators had a big net short position in the stock index futures and the II poll had nine consecutive weeks with bears outnumbering bulls. now it's the other way around, and while this is not information useful for ST timing, it's a very bad sign for the prospects of the much touted second half recovery.