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To: blake_paterson who wrote (76036)	7/21/2001 5:52:24 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Where's the bottom for DRAM? When we lose two of the top five producers. Even if bit's/PC doubles next year, (~128MB to 256MB), those company's producing 256Mb devices will grab large market share with the same number of devices 128MB would require. And without a significant increase in the quantity of chips required, IMO we still have overcapacity. If the PC market grows to 150M units in 2002, 256MB/PC would require only 1.2B 256Mb devices. (A $6B market at $5.00 ASP). (Note: According to DeDios Associates, YOY growth in bit's/PC, (Jun 00 - May 01), Consumer 15%, Commercial 22% and NoteBook 49%). The reality is that while bit's/PC will increase at a higher rate next year, I doubt if they double. And the transition to higher densities with tighter rules on larger wafers will cause pain for some time. Those who choose not to invest in the infrastructure to produce those devices may fall by the wayside. (Probably what a few of the big guys are betting). Then we'll see the bottom. Just a hypothetical analysis and JMO's