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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (128741)	7/21/2001 9:32:01 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

Yet, Amzn says they'll have $1 billion in cash left by the end of this year. What am I missing other than they might have included their investments in that 1 $billion dollar cash number?? I do not recall Amazon or any analyst claiming Amazon will have $1 billion at the end of Q4 2001. That was the claim for the end of Q4 2000. I can stand being corrected but I believe management claims they will have $700 million at the end of Q4 2001. Assuming the vendors supply them in Q4 on credit, this is a reasonable number. The problem is that accounts payable due January 10, 2002 will be about $900 million. I am basing that number on current lowered revenue projections for Q4. The only way Amazon can pay their vendors on time is to bring in $200 million in revenue between January 1 and January 10 2002. Otherwise vendors will be sitting their trying to collect money for merchandise supplied in Q4 2001. By February many will bring legal action for the debt due them. I donot believe Amazon will wait until the legal action is brought. I believe they will file Chapter 11 to protect them from their creditors in January 2002. Keep in mind this assumes the vendors will continue to supply Amazon with merchandise throughout Q4 2001 on credit. Vendors as a rule are quite smart. I look for them to work on a COD or net 10 to 15 day basis by December. This will cause Amazon to be out of stock of in a lot of products through a good part of Q4 2001 and December in particular. I do not know if you shop at their store but I do look to see what they are doing and we are already seeing a far greater amount of product with two to three day delivery time in place of the typical "usually ships within 24 hours." That will not sit well with the consumer in December when the consumer wishes to be certain to have their purchases for a gift on Christmas Day. If you can make time, take a look at the number of items Amazon now has two to three day shipping. Look again in October and I am certain you will see that number increase and become acute in November.