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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (565)	7/22/2001 5:29:28 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 1643

THE MAKE OR BREAK PRICE IN THE STOCK MARKET Prepared by Past Present Futures Newsletter consensus-inc.com January 2001 Coffee The bear market we have experienced in the coffee qualifies as one of the greatest of all time in any market. Based upon price, the current 81% decline ranks as the 2nd worst bear market in history behind the 82% decline in 1931 and ahead of the 79% decline in 1921. Based upon time, our 3 year, 7 month decline is just off the 2nd and 3rd longest bear markets in history which both lasted exactly 3 years, 7 months and 14 days. Notice that each of these lows were established during the "1" year master time factor lows on March 16, 1921, and April 16, 1931. This suggests we still have some work to do at the lows before the historic bottom is in place. Note: In the context of every bear market in history in any commodity, ours ranks as the 6th greatest based upon price and 19th longest. This is an extremely mature situation. Historic Declines In Individual Commodities The old Wall Street maxim says to buy low and sell high. Based upon every calculation, the grains and soybeans are not only incheapli in terms of price but the length of these bear markets indicates they are extremely mature. In Table 2, we show the current percentage declines in wheat, corn, oats and soybeans and how the current bear markets rank relative to every bear market since 1877. As you can see, the decline in the PPF Grain Index ranks as the 3rd greatest in terms of price and 3rd longest in history. Only the 1921 and 1932 bear markets experienced greater percentage declines. Even more telling is the fact that the 60-year cycle decline into the 1939 low ranks as the 4th greatest decline. ............................................................................................................................... The decline in the soybeans to 401-1/2 on July 9, 1999 broke the 1975 low at 439-1/2. Indexed for inflation, this decline carried price to its lowest level in history (Figure 12). The important principle to keep in mind is that the greater the bear market, and extreme of under valuation, the greater will be the bull market which follows. It is the law of action and reaction. The implication is we have completed one of the greatest turning points of our lifetimes. We believe we must continue to remind ourselves of these overall dynamics. While it is true the huge carrying charge premiums continue to weigh on the grain and soybean sectors, once the buying lows are in place, we will be looking at a historic bull markets.