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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (41042)	7/22/2001 11:33:33 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 100058

stan - "if enough institutions get it in their head.....etc." I know . . . . their truck hit me the morning after the May fed meeting. But after that rally died down several days later, it's basically been a short the rallies kind of thing, don't you think? So what are those institutions doing now? My guess is that they're sitting on a lot of cash waiting for earnings season to die down, which is a few weeks away. I don't think they want to go long at a time when many companies are missing reduced estimates or making their numbers and giving bleak guidance. Some companies (SUNW, EMC, NT for example) gave NO guidance to show you how much uncertainty they have and no timetable as to when this mess will start turning around. The writer of the article in your post might want to let those companies know that "the earnings recovery is underway" because obviously they don't think so. This week's bearishness could change if we get some unusually good news from someone major or a surprise rate cut. But even then, I don't believe a rally off of either one of those scenarios might not have much staying power until after October's or next January's earnings reports give us a little more reason to be optimistic.The writer of the article in your post expects a strong uptrend to begin and be maintained in the next two weeks, but the bigger question there is how long will it be maintained. After April's low I predicted that the next bottom would be at the end of May or the and of July. Clearly I was wrong about the end of May, and the end of July scenario is looking better, but now I am questioning that prediction as I think we may still have some more down to go. The most encouragingly bullish thing I can say about last week's action is that (for whatever reason) we didn't go below 1935, but alas, that's really not saying much. Basically I think I will be following Yogi Bear next week looking for some pic-a-nic baskets to raid, like I did VRTS' basket this past. Hope I didn't ramble too much. P.S. On a non-TA non-FA note remember that the next Puetz Window is from July 30 to August 7. <g>