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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (92666)	7/22/2001 2:15:30 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Why is NG prod lagging drilling?? Part One. That's THE question right now that IMHO isn't getting looked at in a way that can give us a handle on what to expect going forward. ANOTHER major leg down in the NG stocks (AFTER some kind of Market rally) Stage One of the NG story was the big drop in demand from the weak economy. And a small handful of us on this thread warned early and correction about this risk to your portfolios when this year began. People bashed and ignored us then for making the forecast. And they bash us now for reminding them that their losses could have been avoided IF they had listened! Now it's time to take another contrarian view. What you're reading about no production growth is at best misleading and at worst another news cover just like the high NG prices and great earnings est in January that we warned you was a trap for BACKWARD looking FA. A few of us here looked forward with a variety of tools, and got it right The BIG BEAR NG >>>>> Stage Two, increasing NG production (growing supply) is where we need to look as the trigger for the final major leg down in the NG E&Ps, some of the NG focused OS stocks and NG Rty Trusts. Robert, even many industry people can be surprised by how long it takes for new or recently completed NG gas wells to be be put into production. Too many articles are focusing ONLY on drilling stats. But by doing so, IMHO, most readers are getting a very incomplete and distorted picture. As a result they are underestimating the NG production that will be coming on line during the next 6-12 months. Focusing on drilling stats and then looking at CURRENT production figures is almost like a demographer looking at the a few recent years of high birth rates for a nation and then? Failing to allow sufficient time for these folks to enter the economy as workers and consumers! Result: Interpretations of trends that are WRONG WRONG WRONG! Let's look at the NG situation and see why supply is going to continue to "surprise" the bulls. (con't in next msg) Isopatch