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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (812)	7/22/2001 1:46:20 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95639

RtS, a report from SemiCon West messages.yahoo.com The poster is a responsible industry insider. [he may have mis-typed the year 2003 ??] Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (812)	7/22/2001 3:41:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95639

RtS, Yes, the "long knives" continue to come for VECO. A good place to look at a summary of upgrades and downgrades can be seen at: earnings.com With the exception of a "coverage initiation" by US Bankcorp on 10/17/2000, VECO has had 7 successive downgrades starting on 9/27/2000 until the most recent downgrade on 7/16/2001. On 9/27/2000, "this years" earnings was estimated at 1.38 and "next years" earnings was estimated at 2.78 by First Call. This past week, First Call had a mean estimate of 1.65 for "this years" earnings and 2.34 for "next years" earnings. Obviously, this is very little change since last September(10 months ago) compared to most of the other semi-equips - especially considering there have been 7 consecutive downgrades of the stock during this period. If you look at Earnings.com, earnings.com which provides consensus estimates from Zacks, the numbers for "this year" and "next year" are 1.75 and 2.47 respectively - a little higher than the First Call numbers shown above. One thing interesting to me is CSFB "knocking down" the 2002 number from 2.35 to 1.50. Since the 2002 FY is also the CY for VECO, this implies CSFB thinks the "recession of earnings" is going to extend well into the CY 2002. So much for a 2001 recovery in their eyes. Don