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To: Ibexx who wrote (101940)7/22/2001 7:36:22 PM
From: limtex  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Ibexx - That may not be an indicator since it is just beginning to dawn on people that the recession has arrived and there is now no recovery in sight even in 2002 even if one could see that far. Estimates for Q3 and Q4 have been drastically cut within the last few days and Europe is now seen to be clearly heading down.

Sadly the Clown thread people were proven right. This is a three year slow haircut:-

Year 1 -characterized by disbelief and keep buying the dips. Many people execept marginmike lost fat in the first year.

Year -2 - charterized by tlak of carrot on stick recovery in 2H then Q4, then Q1 02, then 1H 02 then who knows. Talk of 'trading ranges'. Many people lost real muscle durring the 2nd year and its not anywhere near over yet.

Year 3 - The big one. This year imho will be characterized by increasing unemployment and lay-offs, credit card problems, peole unable to keep up with mortgage payments and of course the consumer will have finally succumbed. This year many people will get into serious debt and all the 1929 stories will start to emerge from the GW crash of 2000-200?.

This is the year that Mr G will finally have ended peoples desire to own equities. Then he will finally be able to rest sure that a stock market rally will not occur for decades.

Best regards,

L