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To: blake_paterson who wrote (76070)7/23/2001 7:53:56 AM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 93625
 
Blake, re: I had figured one closure would signal the bottom.

I think the reality is that none are going away. With Hynix raising $1.2B last month they appear to be a long time player.

While Hynix is suspending operations in Oregon for six months:
The company, which operates chip-manufacturing facilities in Oregon, said it would suspend production for the next six months, which is equivalent to 15 percent of all DRAM production and 50 percent of 64Mb DRAMs.
it only represents bout 3% of worldwide production.

If others reduced output it would help, but I think all are fighting to maintain or grow market share regardless of the consequences. (Following the Intel, DELL and Micron model?) If the overcapacity situation lasts for a number of quarters, something will eventually give.

JMO's



To: blake_paterson who wrote (76070)7/23/2001 3:01:29 PM
From: gnuman  Respond to of 93625
 
Blake, Interesting spot market data
If you haven't been there, DRAMeXchange has a lot of info on the DRAM pricing.

Here's the chart for 64Mb PC133. Spot is below $1.00.
dramexchange.com

Here's the chart for 256Mb PC133 chips.
They're under $4.00 today, and they haven't been out in quantity for a year yet. Will 4i DRDRAM come within 5%?

dramexchange.com

And here's the home page.

dramexchange.com