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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (101943)	7/22/2001 9:51:22 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Ibex I agree about Limitex-g- The problem is even if things get better they will not come close to where they were for many years. Even if The market can muster a rally, it will be ST in nature. The cycle is over, and we have a ways to go to wring out excess's. I do agree ST P/c Rydex etc says we bounce. I would also point oput many charts have nice double bottoms. HOWEVER whatever rally transpires will be short lived because the real economy will soon follow the tech. There are to many fundimental problems that need to be wrung out. DEBT levels are at unprecedented levels, The consumer has been on a spree never seeen in world history in the USA, Third world economies like Turkey, Argintina and 1st world like Japan are near virtuall implosion. What will drive this next wave of growth? When will it really kick in. A bounce Yes, maybee sideways like the dow for a whille, but in the end Stocks will underperform Bonds and many other investements for the next 1-3 years. The future is very bleek, and stocks including QCOM are still pricing in a return to 1999 type growth. %0 billion dollarf companies do not grow 40% a year in normal circumstances. The handfull that did in the 60's-80's would get Pe's of 1.5 timews their growth when they were in their prime. Qcom's PE at 60 is just to rich for the coming enviroment of slashed Capex and cost cutting that will have to occur for the economy to regain a base for a period of sustained growth. The economy has worked in 10 year cycles this cycle is done. In 1960-73 82-90 and now 1993-2001. At best Ibex We the ones who trade will make $ the long term BH guys are dead meat.