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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: exeric2 who wrote (41074)7/23/2001 12:58:47 PM
From: kleht  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 100058
 
Exeric2: Am I missing something here? I'm not very experienced at looking at charts, but I am somewhat confused by <<I noticed something funny: on the second chart of the Nasdaq from Jan 2000 - July 2001 they draw an arbitrary trendline and then say, "this trendline has only been briefly broken twice, once following the initial bounce and once in recent weeks" and then draw an ominous conclusion.>>

I looked at the chart and felt it was anything but arbitrary. After the March 2000 breakdown the NAZ made a temporary bottom at around 3100 (an approximately 1900 point drop) before embarking on a short-intermediate term uptrend. The uptrend ended at approximately 4300 (a 1200 point rise). This works out to about a 61-64% retracement of the initial huge breakout on the downside. Perhaps I'm just being foggy-minded, but it would seem that connecting the 5000-plus top with the retracement top and extending downward would be the thing to do.

Now, drawing an ominous conclusion from this is another story. That line could easily be broken on the upside and the story changes from there.

I'd appreciate any comments. Thanks.

Ken