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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AugustWest who wrote (132)	7/23/2001 5:46:30 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 306849

An observation on earnings estimates for the builders... In reviewing several of the publically traded homebuilders, it strikes me as odd that most are expected to post HIGHER earnings in 2002, meaning that ANY decline in next year's earnings is not currently factored into their price! And this for a highly cyclical industry at what appears to be near the end for an interest rate easing cycle! Here are a few examples (all results from Yahoo Research): BZH '01 est 7.36 '02 est 7.96 LEN '01 est 5.28 '02 est 5.75 TOL '01 est 4.98 '02 est 5.49 PHM '01 est 6.08 '02 est 6.54 What's strange about this is that most of the builders also carry analyst rating scores in the 2-3 range, far from bullish. To me, it appears that the analysts themselves believe these stocks won't make their earnings and are in the process of rolling over. All MHO only.