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To: gnuman who wrote (76088)7/23/2001 9:05:11 PM
From: blake_paterson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
Gene, re: "The company, which operates chip-manufacturing facilities in Oregon, said it would suspend production for the next six months, which is equivalent to 15 percent of all DRAM production and 50 percent of 64Mb DRAMs.
it only represents bout 3% of worldwide production."

Yeah, but you never know where that 3% falls on the elasticity curve. At an inflection point? What is the slope? etc etc. Sometimes 3% can cause wild pricing gyrations. Don't think its going to happen here, but I also wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the (potential) impact.

BP



To: gnuman who wrote (76088)7/23/2001 9:08:37 PM
From: blake_paterson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
If the overcapacity situation lasts for a number of quarters, something will eventually give.

Glad you finally put that silly notion of underconsumption out to pasture; I knew I'd finally get thru to you <vbg>.

I give them (the industry) 4 quarters at the most before we get an first exit. Just look at Micron's cash vs. burn rate.

BP


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